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Santosh Vijay Dere

@santoshdere51

2 years ago
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Posted On: February 20th 2025, 01:25 pm
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The bigger problem in Europe right now is that all the countries will have to make a decision on whether they will save France the country, or their currency, the Euro... I’ll explain... Even though Japan and the US also have a very high debt problem at the moment, but to repay their debt, they can print their own currency, which is in their control... Of course, such high printing of currency will lead to inflation, which they will try and manage... But France does not even have the option of printing money... because the Euro is managed by the ECB which all the EU countries run together... So when France goes to request the Euro Central Bank (ECB) to print more money... they will say why should other European countries face the brunt of inflation when the one at fault is you... This was the first option - printing more currency. Now comes the second option - borrowing more money... Since 1974... France has never made more money than it has spent, which means it has been borrowing every single year for 50 years... and now the interest cost is rising because bond rates have also gone up in US and Japan... so no investor will take French bonds and accept a low interest rate So what is the other option? Rescue Financing - Europe also has a Eurozone Rescue Fund which can lend at a reasonable rate just to save the French economy... And with such financing will come conditions such as asking France to cut down on budgets for pensions and public funding... And the French people are such that anytime the govt raises the retirement age by 2 years or even proposes to cut any spending... they come on the streets protesting... as happened in 2023... Now the Rescue Fund has about EUR 500 Bn to lend... but France’s debt is EUR 3.5 Tn... 7X larger... so will France accept this amount with conditions and take a chance with civil unrest that could overthrow the government? P.S. Note that this is just simplification of otherwise several complex topics to educate on what is happening currently, and should not be treated as investment advice, or the only perspective on the world. #casarthahuja
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