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Empresś Judy

@karle324

a year ago
Photo by Empresś Judy on December 16, 2025.
Photo by Empresś Judy on December 16, 2025.
Photo by Empresś Judy on December 16, 2025.
Photo by Empresś Judy on December 16, 2025.
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Posted On: December 16th 2025, 08:25 pm

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🇺🇸 TEXAS/LOUISIANA MIDTERM ELECTION UPDATE - 1 DAY OUT 1 - Talarico leads in two new polls. A new Atlas Intel poll has James Talarico up 6% on Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. A new Emerson poll has the race closer, but Talarico still winning by 1.4% Two months ago, @kalshi had Talarico and Paxton dead even. Now Talarico is the heavy favorite. (73% odds) #KalshiPartner 2 - Nate Silver moved the Texas Senate race from Lean D to Likely D. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. 3 - Talarico was asked if he’s the one who’s going to turn Texas blue. He said no, “I think the best color for Texas is purple.” 4 - Paxton’s 2015 mugshot is making the rounds again. He was booked on securities fraud charges months after becoming Texas attorney general. He later reached a deal that got the charges dropped in exchange for 100 hours of community service, 15 hours of legal ethics training, and around $300,000 in restitution to the alleged victims. He didn’t have to enter a plea, and he had faced the prospect of decades in prison if convicted. 5 - A new Atlas poll has Democrat Gina Hinojosa narrowly leading Gov. Greg Abbott. @kalshi odds still favor Abbott, but her numbers have shot up. No Democrat has won the Texas governor’s race since the legendary Ann Richards in 1990. 6 - A new poll has Louisiana’s Senate race tied between Democrat Jamie Davis and Republican Julia Letlow. It comes from a Democratic pollster, and markets still have Letlow as a big favorite. Early voting has also swung from strongly Republican in 2024 to a Democratic edge this year. History gets made either way: Letlow would be Louisiana’s first Republican woman senator, and Davis would be the first Black senator the state has ever elected. 7 - Kalshi’s Senate forecast drifted toward Democrats all year, then swung hard in September and October. As of October 31, the single most likely outcome in the market was 54 Democratic seats.
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