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Posted On: May 13th 2026, 04:49 pm

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An insight on Russia's failure in Ukraine as the exact reason why there is a threat of Russian aggression against the Baltic states

The Russians must first raise the stakes in order to be able to lower them later while negotiating its sphere of influence with the other world powers

When Russia sits down at the negotiating table with NATO - and is, at that time, in conflict with the Baltic states - it will have this bargaining chip to propose a withdrawal from the Baltic states in exchange for cutting off Western aid to Ukraine

What seems logical at first glance - that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and therefore will not resort to aggression against the Baltic states - is merely a misleading illusion

Russia cannot defeat Ukraine solely because of Western supplies of equipment and money. Redirecting this alliance’s aid toward the defense of its own territory is exactly the effect the Russians intend to achieve, and the only way to achieve this is through aggression against the Baltic NATO member states

Such aggression, nevertheless, does not necessarily mean a full-scale invasion, but rather more limited actions - such as those we have already encountered, for example, drone incursions, but this time on larger scale

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