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Rhonda Booth Auger

@boothauger

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Posted On: May 18th 2026, 08:56 pm

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Which groups of voters swung furthest between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 midterms, from the national exit polls. A group’s swing is how much its margin moved: Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump in 2024, then Democratic versus Republican House candidates on November 3, 2026. Each bar is that swing, blue toward Democrats and red toward Republicans. Voters aged 18 to 29 went from Harris by 11 points to Democrats by 47, a 36-point swing. All voters swung 12 points, from Trump by 2 to Democrats by 10. The chart ranks all 25 single groups (age, gender, race, education, income, party, religion and a few others) and leaves out combinations like Latino men, which repeat their parent groups. The scale stays the same for every row, so bar lengths compare all the way down the list. The number at the end of each bar is the swing in points. These are surveys of voters, not vote counts, the 2024 and 2026 polls were run by different firms, and the 2026 numbers are the morning-after estimates, which can move a little as the final votes are counted. It also compares a presidential race with House races, which is the usual way to measure a midterm swing. Source: NBC News exit polls #ElectionResults #ExitPolls #Election2026 #Democrats #Midterms
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