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2 months ago

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dicecapture

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Posted On: September 9th 2026, 05:48 am

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Biar ngga capek2 scroll 🥹
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Works for @theovertee
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🇺🇸 TEXAS/LOUISIANA MIDTERM ELECTION UPDATE - 1 DAY OUT

1 - Talarico leads in two new polls. A new Atlas Intel poll has James Talarico up 6% on Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. A new Emerson poll has the race closer, but Talarico still winning by 1.4%

Two months ago, @kalshi had Talarico and Paxton dead even. Now Talarico is the heavy favorite. (73% odds) #KalshiPartner

2 - Nate Silver moved the Texas Senate race from Lean D to Likely D. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

3 - Talarico was asked if he’s the one who’s going to turn Texas blue. He said no, “I think the best color for Texas is purple.”

4 - Paxton’s 2015 mugshot is making the rounds again. He was booked on securities fraud charges months after becoming Texas attorney general. He later reached a deal that got the charges dropped in exchange for 100 hours of community service, 15 hours of legal ethics training, and around $300,000 in restitution to the alleged victims. He didn’t have to enter a plea, and he had faced the prospect of decades in prison if convicted.

5 - A new Atlas poll has Democrat Gina Hinojosa narrowly leading Gov. Greg Abbott. @kalshi odds still favor Abbott, but her numbers have shot up. No Democrat has won the Texas governor’s race since the legendary Ann Richards in 1990.

6 - A new poll has Louisiana’s Senate race tied between Democrat Jamie Davis and Republican Julia Letlow. It comes from a Democratic pollster, and markets still have Letlow as a big favorite. Early voting has also swung from strongly Republican in 2024 to a Democratic edge this year. History gets made either way: Letlow would be Louisiana’s first Republican woman senator, and Davis would be the first Black senator the state has ever elected.

7 - Kalshi’s Senate forecast drifted toward Democrats all year, then swung hard in September and October. As of October 31, the single most likely outcome in the market was 54 Democratic seats.