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Zefirina Bomba

@zefirina_bomba

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Posted On: October 24th 2026, 02:45 am

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For the first time in months, Republicans are enjoying a run of favourable headlines, as Democratic infighting and allegations of dirty tricks dominate the news. But prediction markets have shrugged all this off. They have Democrats as 75% favourites to win the Senate. The Economist’s own prediction model is more cautious, putting the probability of a Senate flip at just 53%. Our model is roughly in line with the markets in light-blue and purple states, and much more sceptical of Democrats’ ability to burrow deep into Republican terrain. Tap the link in our bio to read why converting Mr Trump’s unpopularity into victory will be a challenge for the Democrats. Photo: Getty Images
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