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Qhaliel

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Posted On: October 5th 2026, 06:42 pm

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How I anticipate this year’s Texas Senate Election will transpire between AG Ken Paxton and State Representative James Talarico.

The election became open when Paxton defeated incumbent since 2002 John Cornyn by about 27 points in the primary runoff last May. Cornyn has refused to endorse Paxton and frequently repudiates him.

James Talarico last March won his primary by about 6 against TX-30 Representative Jasmine Crockett.

Texas has long been viewed as a Dem opportunity since the early 2010s due to colossal growth in the various suburbs and significant racial diversification. Despite nearly a decade of leftward shifts, Trump transcended expectations in 2024 wining the state by 13.5 points, an 8-point improvement from 2020.

Dems have viewed this election as a prime opportunity due to Paxton’s liabilities, such as his previous legal issue, divorce, and rhetoric perceived as hardline. Talarico, who has a background as a pastor and is viewed as charismatic, is potentially the ideal Dem to appeal to Texas’s noticeable evangelical population. There is also the possibility of substantial Hispanic reversion to the Dems.

Despite that, the GOP has a substantial raw vote advantage at >1.5M votes with 2024 applied, which is heavily attributed to the plethora of conservatives from blue states migrating to Texas. If NYT transplant data is accurate, they are believed to be R+20 and there was similar data from the 2010s suggesting that transplants lean more right than natives.

While The RGV and other Hispanic areas will very likely be where Talarico outperforms Harris the most, those areas are widely considered to be lower propensity. Talarico will also experience substantial improvements in the various suburbs, although the abundance of new voters might be too large for him to surmount.

This all leads me to believe that Paxton will retain the Senate seat by a narrow 2 points, an 11.5-point decline from Trump.

Texas has not elected a Dem Senator since 1988.

#texas #dallas #houston #sanantonio #map

One year later, and I still have to tell him every single day!
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