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Marianna Vourkou

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9 days ago

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Posted On: October 27th 2026, 06:52 am

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A new map shows where El Niño's extreme heat will kill the most people.

The Climate Impact Lab, a University of Chicago-affiliated research group, has launched a tracker that maps heat deaths linked to El Niño down to the state and province level, with monthly projections up to six months ahead.

Its current estimate is about 857,000 deaths through March, with about 373,000 of them expected in the next six months. F

rom October to March, the highest projected tolls are in Nigeria (about 56,000), India (about 55,000, mostly in March), Indonesia (about 29,000) and Brazil (about 19,000).

The deaths are concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South. The estimate has nearly doubled from the lab's September projection of 451,000 because it now covers March and uses observed data: August and September came in much hotter than forecast.

These are modeled projections of extra heat deaths, not counted deaths, and the lab plans to update them monthly as El Niño develops.

source: Climate Impact Lab. (2026, October 27). El Niño heat mortality tracker [Interactive data tool].

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