Prop Firm Trend

Do stocks go up after midterm elections?

From 1946 to 2022, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after all 20 US midterms, up 14.8% on average (price only, no dividends).

Where the record stops:
• Stocks rose in 73% of all 12-month periods anyway, so the base rate is high.
• 3 of the 20 gains were under 3%.
• Midterm years fell 17.5% on average from peak to trough (Carson Group). That low is only known in hindsight.
• After midterms, the VIX fell 7.3% on average, about half the move after presidential elections (St. Louis Fed). A lower VIX says nothing about direction.

Trading tonight's results? Most come in after the 4:00 PM ET stock close, while index futures and perps keep trading overnight. Check your firm's news, overnight and drawdown rules first.

Full record, method and sources: propfirmtrend.com/articles/midterm-elections-stock-market (link in bio)

History, not a forecast. Past results don't predict future returns. We earn commissions from some firms we list.

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