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Bonk

@bonk_edu

3 years ago

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Posted On: March 7th 2024, 03:43 am

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Comments (8)

hott.tubb

3 years ago

hott.tubb

Nice

mista.sand

3 years ago

mista.sand

Ladies and gentlemen

flatgroundd

3 years ago

flatgroundd

ivanhealeyness was tagged

munkyfungus

3 years ago

munkyfungus

So this is it folks

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Everyone saw the headline. We checked the number.

Last week 893 Sydney homes were scheduled for auction and 242 sold. That is 27.1 per cent on SQM Research’s final count, which treats homes withdrawn before auction day as not sold.

It is not quite a record. Cotality, which does not count withdrawn homes, had the same week at 45.6 per cent. SQM’s own figure for the week before, a long weekend, was 26.87 per cent. Both weeks are below the worst week of the first COVID lockdown (27.62 per cent, April 2020). SQM’s series starts in February 2020, and every busy Sydney week under 30 per cent outside that lockdown has come in 2026.

What the data confirms:

The RBA has lifted the cash rate four times in 2026, from 3.60 to 4.60 per cent.
Sydney values are down 8.6 per cent from February’s peak (Cotality index).
Sydney listings are up 19.3 per cent on a year ago while new listings are down 9.4 per cent. Homes listed for more than six months are up 28.3 per cent.
Employment fell 39,300 in September, all of it part time.
What is opinion: a 20 per cent peak-to-trough fall in Sydney (SQM’s Louis Christopher, to the AFR). In July, on SQM’s own podcast, he ruled out falls of 20 per cent or more. SQM’s published March forecast, for a year of steep rate rises, was minus 5 to minus 9 per cent.

Falling is not the same as cheap. The median Sydney sale was $778,000 in mid 2016 and $1,175,000 in early 2026, up 51 per cent. Average full time pay in NSW rose 36.8 per cent. Today’s median dwelling is 10.9 years of the average full time wage before tax. A 20 per cent deposit is 2.1 years of a senior registered nurse’s full pay. Repayments on an 80 per cent loan take about 66 per cent of that average wage (our estimate).

Sources: SQM Research auction results and listings; RBA cash rate; Cotality Home Value Index, 1 Oct 2026; ABS Labour Force and Average Weekly Earnings; NSW DCJ Rent and Sales Report; NSW nurses’ award; AFR Chanticleer, 15 Oct 2026. Estimates are ours.

#SydneyProperty #HousingMarket #Auctions