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John Khan

@johnmortgages

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🌎 Mortgage Broker AB•ON
💵 $3B+ team funding
🏦 Private Lending
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6 hours ago

by @johnmortgages

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13 hours ago

Will a $1.88M Yorkville condo go underwater within 5 years?

The model: the price moves randomly over time, drifting up about 3% a year with 12% yearly swings (geometric Brownian motion):
dPₜ = μPₜ dt + σPₜ dWₜ

Underwater = the price falls to $1.41M or below (25% under the purchase price).

Step 1: Take logs
Xₜ = ln(Pₜ / P₀) = mt + σWₜ
m = μ − ½σ² = 0.03 − 0.0072 = 0.0228
b = ln(1.41M / 1.88M) = ln(0.75) = −0.2877

Step 2: Chance the price hits that level within T years
P(τ ≤ T) = Φ((b − mT) / σ√T) + e^(2mb/σ²) · Φ((b + mT) / σ√T)

Step 3: Plug in T = 5
σ√T = 0.2683
(b − mT) / σ√T = −1.4970
(b + mT) / σ√T = −0.6473
2mb/σ² = −0.9110

Step 4: Compute
P(τ ≤ 5) = Φ(−1.4970) + e^(−0.9110) · Φ(−0.6473)
≈ 0.0672 + 0.4021 × 0.2587
≈ 0.0672 + 0.1040
≈ 0.171

Answer: about a 17% chance of going underwater within 5 years.

This one’s personal. 5 years later, my condo is underwater. The 17% happened. The risk was always there. Anyway… some #MATH

(Simplified model: fixed loan balance, geometric Brownian motion, not a forecast.)

#RealEstate #Toronto #Yorkville #Condo #Math #Probability #QuantFinance #UsingMath taken in Yorkville, Toronto Ontario Canada by @johnmortgages

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4 days ago

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5 days ago

There's a federal program that will fund up to $350,000 of equipment and leaseholds — and most owners are offered a line of credit instead. 🇨🇦

Bank series: Scotiabank for business 👇

🏢 Commercial mortgages — purchase, refinance, construction. 1–5 year terms, fixed or variable
🇨🇦 Canada Small Business Financing Program term loan — up to $350,000 for equipment and leasehold improvements, amortized up to 10 years. Also covers intangibles, working capital and property
💼 Scotia Flex for Business, business term loans and operating lines
🌾 Agriculture loans
🤝 Dedicated program for Black-owned businesses

Where Scotiabank leans first: CSBFP-eligible small business, owner-occupied commercial, agriculture, existing business clients.

The CSBFP is the single most under-used tool in Canadian small business lending. The government shares the lender's risk, which is exactly why approvals land on files a conventional loan won't touch.

What are you seeing out there — has your bank ever brought up the CSBFP first? 👇

Comment SCOTIABIZ and I'll check if your purchase qualifies.

John Khan, Mortgage Broker · Uptown Financial Mortgages
Brokerage #13478 · Lic. M08000086 · 📞 (647) 931-8880
Examples only, not financial advice. OAC.

#Scotiabank #CSBFP #SmallBusinessCanada #EquipmentFinancing #CommercialMortgage #MortgageBrokerToronto #GTA #Canada by @johnmortgages

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