Instagram story viewer> @knixhoops> Posts

Kade Nix

@knixhoops

793

followers

1710

following

Advanced CBB Stats 📊
UCLA/UNC Coverage/Analyst 🏀

POSTS STORIES REELS TAGGED

Download All

This graph has a proven track record of plotting potential Final Four teams, so make sure to check this graph when filling out your bracket ✍️ by @knixhoops

7

1

7 months ago

High 3-point reliance teams will sit toward the bottom-right (shoot a lot of 3s, don't crash the glass), while physical, interior-heavy teams sit top-left (low 3-point share, dominant on the offensive boards). That diagonal is the baseline.

What's actually interesting:
Bottom-right outliers — Teams that are both 3-heavy and poor on the offensive glass. These are the most one-dimensional offenses in the field. If their 3s aren't falling, they have no secondary mechanism. These are your upset vulnerability flags.

Top-right outliers — This is the rarest and most dangerous archetype. Teams that shoot a high volume of 3s and offensive rebound at a high rate. They essentially get two bites at the apple every possession. These are the teams that can beat anyone on a given night.

Top-left cluster — Your physical, interior teams. Low 3-point reliance, elite offensive rebounding. These teams control pace and wear opponents down. Dangerous in a 40-minute game but potentially vulnerable against switching defenses that take away interior touches.

Santa Clara, Virginia, Illinois all shoot a high percentage of 3's while also getting a lot of rebounds.

Tennessee and Florida rebound the ball really well and rely on inside touches by @knixhoops

8

0

7 months ago

There aren't any "low quality" teams in the bracket respectively, so these teams are a bit scary to select when filling out a bracket.

Louisville is the most worrisome team, as they will face a very solid USF team that has the size, rebounding and physicality to send them home by @knixhoops

4

0

7 months ago

Shoutout @ryanhammer9

The teams at the top of the list are more than likely your contenders.

Teams in the upper left side of the graph play slow, controlled and high quality branded basketball, while upper right quad teams play fast paced while still posting great quality. by @knixhoops

5

0

7 months ago

Tennessee draws the winner of the Miami OH and SMU game and for them, I would rather have Miami OH, but it's a push either way.

SMU/Miami play a similar style of ball, but SMU is just slightly better quality

For BYU, NC State makes more sense as a potential favorable matchup. Same pace, but better quality from BYU. Texas could pose a threat by getting BYU uncomfortable by @knixhoops

4

0

7 months ago

Luck can be a misunderstood stat - Essentially, Luck is when a team is overachieving their suggested efficiency.

For example, a team's efficiency suggests they should be up 20-10 but instead are up 24-7, that team is "Lucky"

A High Luck rating means a team is overachieving and their record is better than their performance. Things that can raise/lower a luck rating would be winning a lot of close games, opponents missing open shots, hitting ridiculous low percentage shots, and the timing of scoring runs.

Gonzaga being the only highly rated team in this ranking is interesting by @knixhoops

5

0

7 months ago

Kill Shots can indeed kill in March if teams are not careful.

Luckily for #1 seeds Arizona and Michigan, these scoring runs don't happen often. With 0.06 & 0.09 KS per game, you have to play solid wire to wire to beat these guys.

This is also how you can identify potential upsets. Teams that can go on huge scoring runs but don't allow many can get hot against a higher seeded team and pull away.

McNeese State, Saint Louis, High Point, are all teams to watch for because they can get on these momentum runs and don't particularly allow others to do the same. by @knixhoops

3

0

7 months ago

The way teams can beat Arizona, Gonzaga, Duke, Tennessee, Michigan is to shoot outside and shoot it well.

You do not want to get into a game where you are reliant on inside scoring with these teams

Meanwhile, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Alabama, VCU will be beaten by teams who play hard and physical inside the paint, unless those teams shoot lights out.

Relying on your opponent to shoot a high percentage look and making them play volatile is certainly a way to win in March. by @knixhoops

1

0

7 months ago

Iowa vs Clemson may very well be a very slow, boring 40 minutes

But something to note is that Hofstra who has a possession rate of 66 plays Alabama, who has the 2nd highest true tempo in Division 1. Those two clashing styles should make for a very fun game by @knixhoops

3

0

7 months ago

This one is cool:

The teams in the top left quadrant can get into shooting battles, which means they can get hot and beat anyone, or shoot cold and lose easily

This is a prime example of why Troy is a popular upset pick versus Nebraska. Another key matchup from these stats is SMU/Miami OH

SMU allows a ton of 3's and doesn't shoot many themselves while Miami OH likes to limit their opponent and shoots a fair amount.

Notice how many elite teams like Michigan State, Arkansas, Kansas, Gonzaga, and Arizona are all in the bottom left quadrant.

That's a slight red flag as they allow opponents to potentially dictate the game. They don’t give themselves access to volatility—but give it to their opponent. by @knixhoops

7

0

7 months ago

Alabama & Arkansas can both play at a high pace and take care of the ball

Another team to note is UConn who plays at a slower pace but turns the ball over more than they'd like to

Houston, Purdue and Illinois are among the slower paced teams that can take care of the ball and dictate the way a game is played.

In Purdue's case, it's very impressive that they have such a slow pace but are still ranked #1 in offensive efficiency (!) This means they take care of every possession, play to their timing and are very very effectively scoring on every possession. by @knixhoops

7

0

7 months ago

Akron vs. Texas Tech should be a great matchup due to the disparity in depth and pace.

Akron loses very little efficiency when rotating players and as the pace changes.

If TTU does manage to make it past Akron, their shallow roster makes it hard to string together wins in a row

VCU/UNC also have an interesting disparity: VCU has a very deep team where UNC is banged up and will heavily rely on a short rotation of players

Georgia and St Louis are so so similar in play style and pace, that will make that game so much fun to watch by @knixhoops

3

0

7 months ago