6 days ago
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Posted On: October 28th 2026, 01:30 pm
Sometimes you know more than the market.
September: the Fed hiked 25 basis points, 12–0, and everybody knew it. We bought Yes at 87¢ and collected $1,139 on $1,000. Free money — the market was right and we just showed up.
Today is the opposite. The market gives Paxton 37¢ in Texas. We own 3,335 Yes at 37.43¢. Payout if he wins: $3,335. Risk if he loses: $1,248.
Dems haven’t won statewide in a while, Talarico’s marketing isn’t organic, Republicans vote last minute, and early voting already shows a surge.
Michigan too — Abdul’s odds are horribly priced, and we expect him to lose.
The tech is simple: a contract pays $1 if it happens, $0 if it doesn’t. The price is the probability.
Yes, gambling is real, and people use these markets for the wrong reasons. We don’t hide that.
The beauty is the tool: a market that lets you put money where your knowledge is.
September: the Fed hiked 25 basis points, 12–0, and everybody knew it. We bought Yes at 87¢ and collected $1,139 on $1,000. Free money — the market was right and we just showed up.
Today is the opposite. The market gives Paxton 37¢ in Texas. We own 3,335 Yes at 37.43¢. Payout if he wins: $3,335. Risk if he loses: $1,248.
Dems haven’t won statewide in a while, Talarico’s marketing isn’t organic, Republicans vote last minute, and early voting already shows a surge.
Michigan too — Abdul’s odds are horribly priced, and we expect him to lose.
The tech is simple: a contract pays $1 if it happens, $0 if it doesn’t. The price is the probability.
Yes, gambling is real, and people use these markets for the wrong reasons. We don’t hide that.
The beauty is the tool: a market that lets you put money where your knowledge is.
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