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Independent Wallabies analysis. No softballs. No PR cover. 🏉

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Australia 42, South Africa 38. We said Springboks by nine. We were wrong.

For 65 minutes the Wallabies ran the world champions off Optus Stadium — Ikitau with two tries in three minutes, Donaldson, Wilson and Jorgensen over too, Lonergan perfect off the tee until the last conversion, and a pack that bossed the Boks for most of the night. 42-17.

Then four yellow cards in seven minutes: Wilson, Lonergan, Suaalii, Paisami. South Africa scored 21 unanswered and Australia held on with 11 men on the field.

Best win of the Kiss era. But Ikitau's ankle and Paisami's citing leave both starting centres in doubt for Eden Park on October 10 — and the All Blacks won't let four yellows slide.

Full reaction at the link in bio.

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#Wallabies #Springboks #AUSvRSA #Rugby #RugbyUnion #TestRugby #AustraliaRugby #SouthAfricaRugby #RugbyDecoded #RugbyNews #RugbyAnalysis #Perth #Bledisloe #WorldCup2027 by @rugby.decoded

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19 days ago

Wallabies v Springboks. Optus Stadium, Perth. Sunday, 5:30pm local.

Rassie Erasmus has changed 13 of the starting side that beat the All Blacks in Baltimore. Only Eben Etzebeth and Ethan Hooker keep their places, and André Esterhuizen captains. It isn't a B team — Marx, Nché and Louw are still waiting on the bench.

For the Wallabies: Tom Wright keeps 15 and Joseph Suaalii starts on the wing for the first time. Paisami and Ikitau pair up in the centres. Josh Canham is out with a hamstring, so Lukhan Salakaia-Loto starts at lock.

And an honest correction: after Mendoza we said Kiss had moved on from Allan Alaalatoa. He's back at tighthead for his 94th Test. Kiss moved on from him as captain, not as a player.

Our call: Springboks by nine. Full preview at the link in bio.

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#Wallabies #Springboks #AUSvRSA #MandelaChallengePlate #Rugby #RugbyUnion #TestRugby #AustraliaRugby #SouthAfricaRugby #RugbyDecoded #RugbyNews #RugbyAnalysis #Perth #WorldCup2027 by @rugby.decoded

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21 days ago

Australia 28, Argentina 28. A draw that reads like history and nearly wasn't — Australia's first-ever Test series win on Argentine soil, sealed by a penalty try in the 70th minute against a Pumas side already down to 13 men.

For a quarter of the match it was the other way around. Matera was immense — two tries, the best player on the field by a distance — and the penalty he won in the final minute nearly denied Australia the win outright in sleeting rain and four-degree cold.

Two threads we've been pulling on since Jujuy: Ikitau answered the exclusion question emphatically (most tackles of any back on the park). Suaalii still hasn't got his look at fullback — two Tests in, still unanswered. And the captaincy changed hands entirely, from Alaalatoa to a Harry Wilson recall that looked every bit the long-term answer.

Next audit: the Springboks, September 27, at home. Full breakdown at the link in bio.

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#Wallabies #LosPumas #RugbyChampionship #PumaTrophy #Rugby #RugbyUnion #TestRugby #AustraliaRugby #ArgentinaRugby #RugbyDecoded #RugbyNews #RugbyAnalysis #WallabiesRugby #Mendoza #Springboks #WorldCup2027 by @rugby.decoded

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a month ago

Last week we said Mendoza was the real audit. Kiss has now named a side that looks like one.

Len Ikitau and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii start together in the centres for the first time under Kiss. Ikitau, last year's Wallabies POTY, sat out Jujuy entirely. Isaac Henry to the bench. Hunter Paisami out. That's the midfield the Schmidt era built, handed back to the man who has to prove it still works.

Ben Donaldson gets his first Test start at 10 in two years, with Carter Gordon on the bench and reportedly carrying a knock. Harry Wilson returns as captain at 8. Tom Wright plays his 50th. Filipo Daugunu earns his first start of the year for Harry Potter.

Argentina aren't standing still. Contepomi changed four in the pack, moved Guido Petti to the flank, picked Nicolas Roger at 10, shifted Carreras to fullback, and loaded a 6-2 bench with two debutants. Julian Montoya is still unreleased by Pau.

Australia have won three of four in Mendoza. Argentina have held the Puma Trophy since 2023. Five straight wins would be the Wallabies' first since 2021.

Team sheets are cheap. Sunday 7am AEST is where the analysis gets tested.

#Wallabies #LosPumas #PumaTrophy #RugbyDecoded #RugbyUnion #LesKiss #Ikitau #Suaalii #ArgentinaVAustralia #Mendoza by @rugby.decoded

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a month ago

Australia 27, Argentina 21. Six points in Jujuy — the same margin we called on Thursday, just not nearly as comfortable as the scoreline suggests.

For a stretch either side of the hour mark it was 22-21. One point. A Pumas side we said had no history of folding against Australia had every chance to make that stand up.

Tom Hooper's try in the 54th minute is the only reason this is a reaction post about a win and not an inquest.

The prediction landed. The questions underneath it didn't — Alaalatoa's leadership marker, Ikitau still out of the 23, Suaalii still waiting on his look at fullback.

Next stop: Mendoza. The Puma Trophy is actually on the table. Full breakdown at the link in bio.

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#Wallabies #LosPumas #RugbyChampionship #TRC2026 #PumaTrophy #Rugby #RugbyUnion #TestRugby #AustraliaRugby #ArgentinaRugby #RugbyDecoded #RugbyNews #RugbyAnalysis #WallabiesRugby #Mendoza #Jujuy by @rugby.decoded

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2 months ago

Two wins from two Tests. Neither one tested.

Saturday, Les Kiss takes the Wallabies to San Salvador de Jujuy — altitude, a hostile crowd, and the team that's actually beaten Australia on its own turf. Not Italy. Argentina, by a combined 71 points across the last two visits.

The team news: Len Ikitau isn't in the 23. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii is on the bench. An entirely new front row starts, with Allan Alaalatoa handed the captaincy.

Full breakdown on the site — link in bio.

Where do you have this one landing? by @rugby.decoded

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2 months ago

The Les Kiss era starts now. 🇦🇺

26 years coaching across six countries and nine competitions. Three Six Nations titles with Ireland's defence. Two Super Rugby finals with the Reds. Now he's taking over a Wallabies side coming off one of its worst stretches ever — with a home World Cup in 2027 already on the clock.

First Test in charge: Aug 8 vs Japan in Osaka.

Full breakdown of who he is, what he actually built at every stop, and what changes under him — link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyDecoded #LesKiss #AustralianRugby #RWC2027 by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago

38.71%. Worst losing percentage of any Wallabies coach in 55 years — and that's just the headline. Swipe for the full picture of where Joe Schmidt's Wallabies era landed. Full breakdown: link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyDecoded #JoeSchmidt #RugbyChampionship by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago

Les Kiss named his first Wallabies squad today — and it tells you almost everything about how he plans to run this team.

34 players for the Flight Centre Series against Japan. One new cap (Isaac Henry). One genuinely tough call: James Slipper, Australia's most-capped Test player ever, left out.

Full breakdown on the site — link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyAU #LesKiss by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago

Wallabies 57, Italy 10. This newsletter picked a nervy single-figure win. Instead Australia produced its biggest win in over a decade, and Joe Schmidt walked off after his final Test having just watched his team play its best half of rugby all year.

38-5 at the break. Josh Canham became the first Wallabies lock in history to score a Test hat-trick, all three off the same rolling maul that Italy had no answer for. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Tom Wright, Angus Bell and Len Ikitau all crossed too — nine tries to two for the match.

Where this newsletter got it wrong: I picked Wallabies by single figures on the logic that Italy's spine could keep it tight even with nine changes. It never got close to tight. Italy's only sustained pressure came during Australia's least convincing stretch of the night, not off any real threat.

Six straight losses is now zero. Schmidt leaves with the biggest Wallabies win since the 2015 World Cup and a sold-out HBF Park chanting his name. Twelve wins from 31 is still a hard number — but nobody in Perth was doing that math on Saturday.

Les Kiss takes over full-time now. First assignment: a two-Test series against Japan, starting August 8 away, then Townsville on August 15.

Full recap on the newsletter — link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyAU #JoeSchmidt #ItaliaRugby #NationsChampionship #RugbyDecoded #RugbyAustralia #JoshCanham by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago

Joe Schmidt's last Test in charge, and the opponent is the only team to beat Australia twice in a row this era.

Italy arrive stripped down — nine changes, no head coach on the sideline, missing Menoncello, Capuozzo and more. On paper it's backable for the Wallabies. But six straight Test losses means nothing is automatic right now.

The big calls: Meredith kept at 10 over a fit Ben Donaldson. McReight starts on the bench. Tizzano gets his hometown Test.

Full preview on the site — link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyAustralia #NationsChampionship #Rugby #WallabiesRugby #RugbyDecoded by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago

FRANCE 42-26 WALLABIES. Forty good minutes, then it came apart. 🏉

Declan Meredith's Test debut had the Wallabies up 21-12 at one point. Fraser McReight was a wrecking ball — two tries and a string of turnovers. Then the 50th minute: a French try, a Tom Wright yellow card, and Meredith hooked for Jock Campbell, all inside 90 seconds. France scored 25 unanswered points after that.

We called Wallabies by 4 last week. Wrong call, no excuses. Six straight losses now — that's the real story, not the scoreline.

Full recap on the newsletter — link in bio.

#Wallabies #RugbyAustralia #NationsChampionship #Rugby #WallabiesRugby #RugbyDecoded by @rugby.decoded

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3 months ago