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4 BILLION Humans Could be DEAD in the Second Half of the 21st Century - Institute of Actuaries

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The British Insurance Industry predicts that there could be 4 billion deaths by the end of the century if we pass 3°C of warming.

There are no words.

If global temperatures continue to rise at their current rate, we will face unimaginable horrors. Horrors that, as individuals and as society, we're not equipped to handle.

4 Billion Dead are creating spaces for community to form, where people can demand action and build collective resilience to face what's coming.

Follow the link in our bio to sign up to the next international online call and to get involved.

Join @4billiondead

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In August 2020, Roger Hallam made a statement that made many people found uncomfortable. He claimed billions of people could starve to death within the next two or three generations, speaking publicly after consulting climate scientist Peter Carter. On BBC HARDtalk, he warned of billions of deaths. The backlash was huge, and even within the climate movement, people struggled to respond to his statements. In January 2025, the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, along with the University of Exeter, published Planetary Solvency. Hidden in an appendix was a scenario predicting four billion deaths at 3°C of global heating. Headlines focused more on the potential loss of 50% of global GDP, with the staggering scale of human death receiving far less attention. Four billion dead—there are no words.

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ATTENTION: due to Storm ADURA we're moving the Jackdaw Approval rally to the following Saturday.

New details are:
📆31st October
🕘11AM
📍The Department of Energy Security and Net Zero, Whitehall

PLEASE share these details widely. We don't want anyone travelling in a storm tomorrow🙏

Sign up link for demo in our bio

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Over 4 billion dead. Approximately half of humanity. A catastrophe equivalent to >50 Second World Wars.

That is the scale of human catastrophe described in the extreme-risk category of the 2025 Planetary Solvency report, produced by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in collaboration with the University of Exeter.

The report's illustrative risk matrix associates 3°C or more of global heating by 2050 with cascading climate tipping points, widespread ecosystem disruption, state failure, severe economic losses and more than 4 billion deaths.

These figures represent a hypothetical extreme-risk category, not a calculated mortality forecast. But the broader warning is unmistakable: accelerating climate and ecological breakdown could threaten the foundations of human civilisation.

The report warns that conventional economic models have dangerously underestimated the risks of climate change, overlooking how food shortages, water insecurity, extreme heat, mass displacement and conflict can combine to destabilise entire societies.

This is also a crisis of ecological overshoot. Humanity has breached seven of nine planetary boundaries, while an economic system dependent on endless growth continues expanding resource extraction, consumption and environmental destruction.

The consequences are already unfolding. The 2025 Lancet Countdown estimated that heat-related mortality averaged 546,000 deaths annually between 2012 and 2021, while droughts and heatwaves contributed to millions more people experiencing food insecurity.

This is why 4 Billion Dead exists. Founded to confront the possibility of mass death from global heating, the international movement is building communities willing to face the scale of the crisis rather than look away.

Through monthly international public calls, local groups, shared photo actions and silent processions, the movement seeks to turn awareness into collective action. Its longer-term vision includes legally empowered citizens' assemblies to confront the ecological emergency and redistribute political power.

Register for the November 18 call NOW @4BILLIONDEAD

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Shocking warming in California oceans

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4 Billion Dead first Australian Silent Procession

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APPROVING JACKDAW IS A DEATH SENTENCE

Continuing to extract and burn oil and gas “for decades to come” is not pragmatism, it's a death sentence for our kids.

Cut the hypocrisy Burnham.

Do the right thing and say no to Rosebank.

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🚨BREAKING: JACKDAW APPROVAL EMERGENCY DEMO TODAY

Jackdaw has been APPROVED📍 DESNZ, SW1A 2AW🕕 7.45 AM & 12PM, 21/10

Bring your anger. Bring your friends. Bring your voice.

Climate destruction is here and yet those in power have today decided to back deathly fossil fuels.

New oil and gas is a death sentence. But we still have time to #StopRosebank

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Intro To Just Do Housing pt 1

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Join the next @4billiondead public call on Oct 21 and find ways in your everyday life to divest from big oil and the companies that profit from it.

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Malaysia closed schools in several regions last week because of the haze and offered firefighting assistance to Indonesia. Singapore announced subsidies for people seeking medical treatment for haze-linked illnesses

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Votre foyer. Votre alimentation. Votre sécurité financière. L'avenir de vos enfants. La vie de tous ceux que vous aimez. Tout cela dépend d'un climat stable et d'écosystèmes fonctionnels.

Or, ces deux éléments sont systématiquement détruits. Alors pourquoi ne faites-vous pas tout votre possible pour les protéger ?

Les recherches révèlent une réalité inquiétante : le déni, le conformisme, le sentiment d'impuissance, la pression sociale et la conviction que quelqu'un d'autre agira nous paralysent collectivement.

Une étude de 2024 publiée dans Nature Climate Change, menée auprès de près de 130 000 personnes dans 125 pays, a révélé que 89 % d'entre elles souhaitaient une action gouvernementale plus forte en matière de climat.
Pourtant, le nombre de personnes partageant cet avis était systématiquement sous-estimé.

Le psychologue Robert Gifford a identifié 29 obstacles psychologiques à l'action climatique, notamment le déni, la comparaison sociale et la justification des comportements destructeurs.

Une autre étude de 2024 a constaté que même lorsque les conversations sensibilisaient davantage au climat et renforçaient les intentions, elles n'entraînaient pas une participation accrue à l'action collective.

Vos proches ne seront pas protégés par votre seule sensibilisation, vos bonnes intentions ou votre préoccupation individuelle. Et attendre que quelqu'un d'autre agisse est précisément ce qui nous conduit à l'échec collectif.

Arrêtez de vous laisser submerger par les mauvaises nouvelles. Commencez à vous organiser. Le mouvement et les manifestations des lycéens nous montre le chemin.
La date du 17 octobre approche et pourrait se materialiser comme une manifestation d'ampleur.

Rejoignez l'appel international @4billiondead
Call le 21 octobre. Inscrivez-vous sur 4billiondead.org.

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