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The “why” behind politics.
📖political theory, ethics & philosophy
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Why has #populism had a resurgence? What makes populism so appealing to #voters? How does it work? 

Carolyn Kraft @kraftythinking joined the show. She has a masterful  way of breaking complex concepts down into simple pieces that everyone can understand. 

Our episode, “The Death of Shared Reality in Modern America” is out now, wherever you get your podcasts! 

#history #politics
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We’ve been saying these moves are not random. 

#Venezuela #Hormuz #Malacca.
These are global supply chain junctions. 

Control supply. Control routes. Control outcomes.

China’s economy runs on imported energy, and most of it moves through chokepoints it doesn’t control. This is both massive leverage and vulnerability. 

This is how you shape the battlefield before a war ever starts.
Make it too expensive. Too risky. Too uncertain.

And suddenly, conflict isn’t worth it.

If you’re still looking at these moves in isolation, you’re missing the strategy. This has always been about #china
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On libertarian paternalism.

References:

“Our longitudinal analysis suggests that changing to an opt-out default does not increase organ donation rates. Unless flanked by investments in healthcare, public awareness campaigns, and efforts to address the concerns of the deceased's relatives, a shift to an opt-out default is unlikely to increase organ donations.”

Dallacker, M., Appelius, L., Brandmaier, A. M., Morais, A. S., & Hertwig, R. “Opt-out defaults do not increase organ donation rates.” Public health, 236, 436–440. 2024.

“​Our analysis shows that opt-in and opt-out have strictly identical outcomes in eight out of nine situations. They only differ when neither the deceased nor the family have expressed a preference and defaults therefore apply.”

Molina-Pérez, Alberto et al. “Differential impact of opt-in, opt-out policies on deceased organ donation rates: a mixed conceptual and empirical study.” BMJ open vol. 12, 8 Sep. 2022.

“This paper argues that there is little difference between opt-in and opt-out organ donation systems for increasing donor numbers when used in isolation.”

Etheredge, Harriet Rosanne. “Assessing Global Organ Donation Policies: Opt-In vs Opt-Out.” Risk management and healthcare policy vol. 14 1985-1998. 13 May. 2021.

The famous 2003 study:
Eric J. Johnson, Daniel Goldstein. “Do Defaults Save Lives?” Science, 302, 1338-1339. 2003.
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“When I was 17 years old, I was hit by a drunk driver while walking down the road on a residential street in the middle of the day. It was two days before I was supposed to go to college, and three days before my 18th birthday. As a result, I spent two weeks in the hospital and had to push back college for a year. 

I had many injuries, but the worst were to my brain. I had multiple brain bleeds, a fractured skull, massive concussions, bruised arteries, and more. 

The doctors said it was a miracle I survived, and another miracle that I recovered fully. I ended up living at home and embarking on a long road towards full health, all while watching my friends go to college and start their lives. In addition, the doctors never guaranteed a full recovery, so I was plagued with fears of permanent brain damage.

That year was one of the worst experiences of my life, and while I wasn’t aware of how I was handling it at the time, I can now look back and understand it. I believe I embodied a similar concept to what kept Admiral James Stockdale, a US Navy pilot, alive while he was a prisoner of war in Vietnam. It’s the ability to hold two things at once: brutal honesty about the current reality combined with an unwavering faith that I would ultimately prevail. 

I wasn’t necessarily optimistic and starry-eyed about my future, but I had this stubborn perseverance and foundational belief that I would get through it. I kept my head down, and I kept going. And it worked.”

-Carolyn Kraft
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