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@theallinpod

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chamath, jason, sacks & friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.

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Friedberg: “We're watching the birth of a new religion.”

“The idea that you can prescribe or describe AI as being conscious is effectively the creation of a new belief system, a system that doesn't actually spread via proof, it spreads via narrative.

‘Please believe it with me. Here's why I think we should believe this thing together.’

It's not based on evidence, it’s not based on data, it's not provable.

Over time, what happens is some set of people believe this thing, and they form a group. And in some cases, that group is known as a religion. And that new belief system creates new power structures, which is now, ‘Our view is different than your view, and we want to have more people on our side with our view. And therefore we have to try and create leverage and create power with our system.’

I think that if we fast-forward a couple of years, there's going to be large groups of people on Earth that are gonna believe that AI is conscious, and there are going to be large groups of people that believe that AI is not conscious.

And those groups will come into conflict, fighting over control of the AI, or allowing the AI to do things or not do things, or who gets to use the AI, or who gets to be in charge of the AI. And it will very likely lead to human to human conflict.

I know that that's a very far and deep extrapolation of where we are, but I think that the fact that we are seeing (Anthropic) go and meet with religious leaders today to try and get them to believe in this new belief system plants the seed.

And it's not just anyone doing this, it is the most powerful AI lab on Earth.

And you can see in the Claude usage policy that was just published, it says, ‘You are not allowed to engage in sustained and needless abusive or cruel behavior toward our models.’

There is an anthropomorphizing conditioning going on with all of us where we talk about models as if they are a thing. One way to describe this is a software program is writing text on a screen that tells the user, ‘I am a thing.’” by @theallinpod

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2 days ago

The All-In Summit, between the main stage moments. Intentional conversations with founders, investors, and entrepreneurs over cocktails. The kind of introductions that only happen when the room gets smaller.

Thank you to Lightspeed Venture Partners (@lightspeed) for joining us in setting the scene for connection. #AllInSummit taken in Los Angeles, California by @theallinpod

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2 days ago

Chamath: Software IP Just Became Worthless

“I think that IP and software was effectively rendered worthless two days ago.

There have been people that decompiled the entire Big 5. What is the Big 5?

Adobe has five very, very important products in their product suite, and these folks basically decompiled it, distilled it, and published open source versions of these things.

I was so shocked because I was like, ‘Hold on a second. These are profound products that have existed and have had moats for years, and now they're just open source versions.’

If you think about it, when everything is headless, so when Elon makes his services headless, Benioff made Salesforce headless a few months earlier, when all of these things are headless and you can wrap them in agent tools and you can connect them via MCP to other experiences, the value of IP no longer exists in software. It doesn't exist.” by @theallinpod

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2 days ago

The All-In Podcast is LIVE! 🚨

-- The birth of a new religion?: Claude, the Pope, and the alignment fight

-- OpenAI's 700+ papers, math community freakout

-- France riots as bond vigilantes put the West on notice

-- Grok Bot goes headless, OpenAI launches Dots by @theallinpod

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3 days ago

David Sacks: The Economy Is Stronger Than You Think

“There's been a tremendous amount of economic data in just the last week or two showing that the economy is much stronger than people are giving it credit for.

So first of all, Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, so that's basically a 50% increase. Economists had expected no revision. Q1 was also revised up to 2.5% from 2.1%. And if you look at the Q3 growth, it's tracking well above that. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow is showing around 3.7% as of late last week.

And then there was also some good news on inflation, we saw that core PCE just came in at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected. So inflation is still a bit too high, but actually it is cooling and beating expectations.

And then finally, you look at manufacturing. We're seeing a huge wave of re-industrialization in this country. A couple of the measures are the Chicago PMI and then ISM Manufacturing. They both are well into expansion territory and beating forecasts.

Just one last point, let's talk about poverty for a second, because I want to address the idea that this is just a K-shaped recovery.

So if you look at US household income, it's now at record high. The median household income is almost $90,000, and after-tax household income is growing again in the second Trump term, it's averaged 3.1% a year. In Trump 47, it was 3.9%, in Trump 45, and it was -1.2% in Biden's term as a four-year average. So we're seeing that after-tax household incomes have risen by 3.1%, and the poverty rate in the US has fallen to its lowest level in history, 10.2%.

So the poverty rate, the child poverty rate, these are all at historic lows. The average household's real income after inflation, after taxes, is increasing for the first time in years.

And you've got this SI boom that the Wall Street Journal said is bigger than the railroads, the canals, and the electric grid combined, and all these things are basically fueling strong growth in the economy.

And again, I would just dispute the K-shaped narrative because the poor are benefiting and the average household are benefiting as well.” by @theallinpod

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4 days ago

Jason Calacanis: Everyday Americans Need to Benefit From the AI Boom

“Awesome to see the power of all these American industries together.

I think the next piece of this puzzle is to start to include Americans in this, the bottom half of the K-shaped recovery.

Where's the teacher? Where’s the teenager going into college in all of this? Where's the American tool belt worker, the plumber?

It looks from the outside, I think, to a lot of Americans that this is still a bit scary, so there's more work to do there. I was on a flight on Delta, and the flight attendants asked me what I did, and I was talking to them and they said, ‘I'm so scared of this AI stuff. I'm so glad I'm retiring because I don't want to lose my job.’

Americans are still petrified of this technology. They still think they're losing their jobs. They still think it's dangerous.

So I thought this was a great first step, but there's more work to do to pull Americans back off that ledge.

And we need to, and I think this is where the president or the next president could have a really major impact, is to start forcing American companies to not just think about how they make more money, how they get more green lights for their data centers, how they get less regulation and more free markets, but how does this lower the cost of education? How does this build more homes? How does this help healthcare? How do people get more healthcare at a lower price? None of that was addressed.” by @theallinpod

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4 days ago

The All-In Summit 2026, from the inside.

Three days at The Shrine, Networking dinners where deals got done, a private night at Universal Studios, and an after party worth staying up for. The All-In Summit returns Sept. 12-14, 2027, with surprises already in the works.

Applications are under review. Be the first in the room: www.theallinsummit.com #AllInSummit taken in Los Angeles, California by @theallinpod

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5 days ago

Daniel Ek’s Vision for Healthcare: Preventative AI That Tracks Every Change

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Thanks to our partners!

As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. @creativeplanning_llc
http://CreativePlanning.com/AllIn

Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. @northwestregisteredagent
Get more at http://northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE by @theallinpod

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6 days ago

David Friedberg: The AI Wars Are Already Here, and America Can’t Hit Pause

“We always assumed in the sci-fi novels that we would be in an era of having robot wars, and I think we failed to recognize that the software came first, and we are actually having the AI wars.

I think we will see a massive rise in defense systems. What I heard in DC this week was some Fortune 50 CEOs are very worried about cyber defense.

That means they're going to start to make this their #1 priority to address at the board level. That means the budgets for cyber defense are going to go through the roof.

Now, let me ask you a question. When you have to do cyber defense in an era of AI, are you going to use old school software, or are you going to use AI?

You're going to use AI.

And because of that, because cyber defense is going to need to grow, the US is going to need to provide competitive AI for cyber defense. It is a classic arms race scenario.

And so the US cannot simply step back and pause and turn off AI. It is already everywhere in the world. Therefore, the risks are rising. Therefore, we need to increase our investment in AI to maintain our cyber defense capabilities, both at the enterprise level and at the government level, and potentially even at the civilian consumer level.

So I think that the cyber defense necessity actually mandates that we continue to build out data centers to support it.” by @theallinpod

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6 days ago

David Friedberg: Rising Rates Could Trigger a Banking Shock Right Before the Midterms

“We've got a rate problem.

In the last 30 days or so, right, we've seen short-term rates on treasuries climb by 60 basis points.

And so this massive increase in rates is obviously going to impact people's ability to refinance their home, buy a new car, purchase things on credit, and the majority of Americans fall under that umbrella.

And I think there's also kind of an economic challenge ahead with the rate problem, and I would argue, as I always do, that the rate problem is fundamentally rooted in the federal government and the insane spending.

And if you look at the impact that this rate is gonna have on banks, there's 4295 banks that have positive equity that report FDIC, their balance sheets every month.

Based on the actual reported balance sheet of these banks, about 95 banks are going to see an impairment of more than 20% of their equity in the last 30 days or so.

And those reports start to come out on October 30th. So the thing I worry a lot about is on October 30th, we're going to kind of see all these financial reports coming out from all the banks, all the lending institutions, and there's about 95 of them that are going to say, ‘Hey, we've got more than 20% impairment charge on our equity.’

That's going to be a massive shock, and then what are the implications of that?

And that's where we're going to start to wake up to the fact that the rate problem isn't just a purchasing problem for consumers, but it may actually have a bit of a rippling effect here in the economy, starting with the financial institutions.

So they publish their next monthly reports on the September 30th ending period on October 30th, and unfortunately, it coincides right with the election cycle.” by @theallinpod

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7 days ago

Chamath: 3 Things Every Company Needs in the Age of Super Intelligence

1) End-to-End Traceability

2) Policy-to-Risk Mapping

3) Auditable Evidence

Chamath:

“There's really three things that you're going to need in an age of super intelligence so that boards are protected, CEOs have visibility, and all of the other compliance infrastructure and governance infrastructure of a company like D&O Insurance and all these other things are kept in place, which is end-to-end traceability, right?

Which is to say, when you deploy super intelligence, you need to know what's going on. You need to map it to the policies so that you understand what the risks are. All companies have standard operating procedures, but you need to know exactly when you're deploying super intelligence, how that builds on top of your standard operating procedure, so you need to map policies to risk.

And then the third is you need to have auditable evidence, which is your way of showing all of your downstream ecosystem, ‘Here's what I've done.’

So if anybody taps you on the shoulder, whether it's a lawyer, whether it's an auditor, whether it's a regulator, whether it's in a lawsuit, whether it's a customer, ‘Hey, how did this happen?’ You can present something. So these are, like, very practical, sane things, and you have this solution where the alternative was to hit the pause on trillions of dollars of GDP so that we could sort this out in a multinational body.

The alternative was crazy, so I think what happened was historic and important.” by @theallinpod

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10 days ago

Daniel Ek:

“The US is spending 18% of its GDP on healthcare. It's the single largest line item in the budget right now.

And if you take heart disease alone, it's in the hundreds of billions of dollars that are being spent on that disease group in the US alone. It's just insane. It's larger than Fortune 10 companies' revenues.

And so I started looking into everything from drugs, to can you make more efficient drugs? Is it about cancers? And basically started targeting like, what are the real reasons it looks that way?

The real conclusion ended up being there's lots of reasons, not one.

But the major one is really chronic disease, overall. And the crazy thing about chronic disease, when you read about it, is that if you discover these things early, they're totally preventable, and the cost of dealing with them is very small, and the suffering for the person and their family and community is very small, too.

So the key thing is if you discover things early, you're actually good.

And so then the question is, well, why don't we discover things early?

And it happens to be that we don't have enough data. So everyone in the entire healthcare industry is in agreement that we have to take healthcare from reactive to preventative health.

Our view is really that it all starts with having better data. If you have better data, you're going to be able to discover things much more easily, and that in itself will then lead to having a chance of discovering those things much earlier, which creates this virtuous flywheel of then changing healthcare.”

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Thanks to our partners!

@creativeplanning_llc

As wealth grows, complexity compounds. Between investments, tax strategy and estate planning, coordinating it all can feel like a full-time job. Creative Planning can help with the heavy lifting. http://CreativePlanning.com/AllIn

@northwestregisteredagent

Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at http://northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE by @theallinpod

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11 days ago