Instagram story viewer> @tomtheweatherwizard> Posts

Tom the Weather Wizard

@tomtheweatherwizard

480

followers

10

following

Tom the Weather Wizard helps you understand what the weather is doing, where and why.

POSTS STORIES REELS TAGGED

WHY HAVE HURRICANES NEVER CROSSED THE EQUATOR?

With just about six weeks remaining in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, here’s a fascinating weather fact that many people don’t know.

Despite thousands of tropical cyclones developing across the world’s oceans, no hurricane has ever been recorded crossing the equator.

The explanation comes down to the Coriolis effect, which is caused by Earth’s rotation. It helps tropical cyclones develop their characteristic spin, but its influence weakens dramatically near the equator and reaches zero directly along it.

That’s why tropical cyclones rarely develop within approximately 300 miles of the equator. It’s also why storms generally rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

The map illustrates this remarkable divide between the world’s tropical cyclone tracks.

And although we’re approaching the November 30 conclusion of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics aren’t necessarily finished. Late-season storms can still develop, particularly in the Caribbean and surrounding waters.

#HurricaneSeason #WeatherFacts #Meteorology #TropicalCyclones #learn by @tomtheweatherwizard

11

0

a day ago

AI MAY HAVE JUST SCORED A MAJOR HURRICANE FORECASTING WIN!

Earlier this week, weather models were telling two very different stories about Hurricane Isaias.

Traditional weather models generally favored a slower storm, tracking farther west toward the northern Gulf Coast with landfall on Saturday.

Meanwhile, several artificial intelligence (AI) models predicted a faster-moving storm, tracking farther east toward the Florida Panhandle, with landfall possible Friday night.

And those earlier AI predictions have turned out to be remarkably close to what we’ve seen!

So, what’s the difference?

Traditional models use complex physics and mathematical equations to simulate how the atmosphere behaves. AI models learn from enormous amounts of historical weather data, recognizing patterns to predict what might happen next.

The National Hurricane Center even acknowledged the differences between these models earlier in the week, incorporating AI guidance into its official forecasts.

Why is this significant?

Accurately predicting a hurricane’s path and arrival time even 24 hours earlier can give communities valuable additional time to prepare, evacuate, and protect lives.

AI won’t get every forecast right, and it’s certainly not replacing meteorologists. But Isaias is providing a fascinating example of how AI could help improve hurricane forecasting in the years ahead.

#HurricaneIsaias #WeatherForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #HurricaneSeason #meteorology by @tomtheweatherwizard

19

8

10 days ago

❄️ ACCUWEATHER’S 2026–2027 WINTER SNOWFALL FORECAST IS HERE!

AccuWeather has released its seasonal snowfall outlook for October 2026 through April 2027, and the forecast shows some significant differences across the country!

🔵 Above-average snowfall: Parts of the Sierra Nevada, Great Basin, Southwest, central and southern Rockies, and central Plains are favored to receive more snow than usual. Cities such as Salt Lake City and Denver could see a much snowier season compared with last winter.

🔹 Below-average snowfall: Much of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast are forecast to receive less snow than their historical averages.

⚪ Near-average snowfall: Other areas, including portions of the northern Plains, southern Appalachians, and northern New England, could finish closer to their typical seasonal totals.

What’s driving this pattern?

A potentially historic El Niño is expected to significantly influence the upcoming winter. A stronger southern storm track could bring more Pacific storms and mountain snowfall across the Southwest and Rockies, while generally milder conditions across northern and eastern parts of the country may limit snowfall opportunities.

AccuWeather is forecasting just 5–15 inches for Philadelphia and 15–30 inches for Boston this season.

However, below-average snowfall doesn’t mean a snowless winter! A single major snowstorm could significantly change seasonal totals, especially along the East Coast.

Remember, this map shows expected snowfall relative to historical averages, not actual snowfall amounts. Seasonal forecasts this far in advance carry considerable uncertainty.

Source: AccuWeather, October 7, 2026.

#WinterForecast #SnowForecast #ElNino #WinterWeather #snowstorm by @tomtheweatherwizard

9

0

12 days ago

HURRICANE THREAT GROWING IN THE GULF

Tropical Depression Nine officially formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday afternoon, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting significant strengthening over the next several days.

As of 4 PM CDT Tuesday, the depression had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving east at just 5 mph.

The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for sustained winds potentially reaching 100 mph by Friday afternoon, equivalent to Category 2 hurricane strength.

After initially moving eastward, the storm is forecast to turn northeast and accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast late Friday into early Saturday. Some weakening is possible before landfall, but the system could still be a dangerous hurricane.

Residents from Louisiana through coastal Mississippi and Alabama to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor developments.

Potential impacts include:
• Damaging winds and dangerous storm surge
• Heavy rainfall of 3–6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches
• Flash flooding, isolated river flooding, dangerous surf and rip currents
• Heavy rainfall and gusty winds near Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula on Thursday

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the storm’s exact track, forward speed and intensity. The forecast cone represents the probable path of the storm’s center, NOT the full area where impacts could occur.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches may become necessary along portions of the northern Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday.

Forecast based on the NHC advisory issued Tuesday, October 6, at 4 PM CDT.

#HurricaneSeason #TropicalWeather #GulfCoast #HurricaneUpdate #instaweather by @tomtheweatherwizard

14

0

13 days ago

OCTOBER TAKES AWAY MORE THAN AN HOUR OF DAYLIGHT.

Later sunrises and earlier sunsets add up quickly this month. This map shows approximate October daylight losses ranging from around 40 minutes in southern Florida to 100 minutes near the northern U.S. border, with greater losses farther north.

Earth’s tilted axis means the Northern Hemisphere receives fewer hours of sunlight as we move toward winter. The amount lost varies by latitude, and days continue shortening until the winter solstice in December.

This month’s map is pink in recognition of Breast Cancer Awareness Month—honoring those affected, celebrating survivors, remembering loved ones, and supporting continued research and care.

#FallWeather #DaylightLoss #October #BreastCancerAwareness #instaweather by @tomtheweatherwizard

14

0

19 days ago

WHEN DOES YOUR FIRST FREEZE USUALLY ARRIVE?

This map shows historical first-freeze timing: generally August–September in the higher mountains and colder northern locations, October across much of the country’s middle latitudes, and November or later farther south. Elevation, nearby water, and urban warmth can make a big difference locally.

A freeze occurs when the measured air temperature reaches 32°F or lower. A hard freeze generally means 28°F or lower for an extended period, posing a greater threat to plants.

Frost is the layer of ice crystals that forms on surfaces like grass and windshields. Those surfaces can cool below freezing even when the official air temperature is 33–36°F, especially on clear, calm nights. You can also have a freeze without visible frost!

Some northern locations have already reached freezing this season. Reported examples include International Falls, Minnesota, which reached 32°F on September 14 and 31°F on September 16, and nearby Ash Lake, which reached 32°F on September 16. These are examples, not a complete nationwide list.

How might 2026 compare? As of September 28, NOAA’s October outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. That suggests the potential for later first freezes in some areas, but it does not guarantee a delay. The interior West has a less clear temperature signal, and just one cold outbreak can deliver a freeze—even during an otherwise warm month. Historical averages are a guide, not a deadline.

#Weather #FallWeather #FirstFreeze #Instaweather #WeatherFacts by @tomtheweatherwizard

15

0

21 days ago

WHY DOES THE SKY HAVE POUCHES?

These are mammatus clouds, captured glowing at sunset after a thunderstorm. Their hanging, rounded shapes develop as pockets of cooler, denser air sink beneath the cloud base. Cooling from evaporation can help drive that sinking motion.

Often seen beneath a thunderstorm’s spreading anvil, mammatus aren’t tornado clouds—and their appearance alone doesn’t mean a tornado is coming. Add golden-hour light, and the storm’s final act becomes a sky worth watching.

#MammatusClouds #Cloudscape #SunsetLovers #WeatherPhotography #weather by @tomtheweatherwizard

10

2

22 days ago

A LONG WEEKEND OF RAIN—WITH BREAKS BETWEEN BANDS.

This NAM model projection shows rainfall accumulating through Monday morning, September 28. A slow-moving nor’easter will send repeated bands inland, but many places won’t see continuous rain. Some could have several-hour breaks before the next band arrives.

Approximate totals shown by this model:
• Lancaster, Reading and Allentown: generally 0.5–1.5 inches, with locally higher amounts.
• Philadelphia and Trenton: roughly 1–3 inches.
• New York City, coastal New Jersey, Providence and Boston: generally 2–4 inches.
• Parts of Long Island and southern coastal New England: pockets of 4–6 inches where bands repeatedly pass overhead.

These are model estimates; a small shift in the storm’s track could move the heaviest rainfall considerably. Heavier bands could cause ponding and localized street or small-stream flooding.

Wind adds another concern: peak gusts could reach 40–50 mph across parts of the inland Mid-Atlantic and around 60 mph along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts. Peak wind gusts around 40–50 mph across NYC, Long Island and southern New England are likely. Tree damage and scattered power outages are possible.

Along Atlantic City, Cape May and the Delaware beaches, repeated high tides could bring significant coastal flooding, with major flooding forecast in some areas. Breaking waves of 6–12 feet, dangerous rip currents and prolonged wave action will contribute to beach erosion and possible dune damage.

Saturday’s Harvest full moon brings higher astronomical tides, giving persistent onshore winds a higher starting water level. Coastal impacts can continue during breaks in the rain.

#Noreaster #NortheastWeather #HeavyRain #CoastalFlooding #weatherupdate by @tomtheweatherwizard

15

0

24 days ago

NOR’EASTER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND

This may be a more impactful nor’easter because of duration rather than extreme peak intensity. The storm is expected to slow, stall and even wobble back toward the coast, prolonging rain, strong northeast winds, rough seas and multiple high-tide cycles into early next week.

Using the latest Weather Prediction Center 72-hour rainfall forecast valid through Monday evening:

PA/DE: Generally 1–2”, increasing to 2–4” near the I-95 corridor and Philadelphia. Locally heavier amounts.
NJ: Roughly 2–4”, with 3–5” across much of eastern NJ as the storm trends farther west. Locally heavier amounts.
NY: 1–3” around NYC and areas west, increasing to 3–4” across central/eastern Long Island. Locally heavier amounts.
CT/RI/MA: Widespread 2–4”, with localized 5–6” possible, especially in favored coastal and terrain-enhanced areas.
NH/ME: Generally 1–2”, locally higher in southeast NH and far southwest/coastal Maine.

Wind will also be significant: 40–70 mph gusts are possible across many coastal areas, with somewhat lower but still gusty conditions inland. NJ and DE could see 6–12 ft breaking waves, Long Island 7–11 ft surf, and offshore seas may reach 15–25 ft near parts of southern New England.

The prolonged northeast flow is especially concerning for coastal flooding and beach erosion. Because waves and surge will hammer the coastline through several high-tide cycles, erosion may become one of the storm’s most significant impacts.

#Noreaster #NortheastWeather #NewEnglandWeather #Weather #instaweather by @tomtheweatherwizard

15

0

24 days ago

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 112 YEARS, THE ATLANTIC HAS REACHED SEPTEMBER 21 WITHOUT A SINGLE HURRICANE.
From 1915 through 2025, every Atlantic hurricane season had produced at least one hurricane by September 21. But in 2026, that streak has finally ended.
As of September 21, the Atlantic has produced six named storms, but none have reached hurricane strength. Normally, we would have seen approximately four hurricanes by this point in the season.
What’s behind the unusually quiet activity? El Niño has helped increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to organize and intensify. Other atmospheric conditions, including dry air, have also limited development.
The last time the Atlantic reached this point in the year without a hurricane was 1914, when the entire season ended without a single recorded hurricane.
One important distinction: These are hurricanes that formed anywhere in the Atlantic basin, not just hurricanes that made landfall in the United States.
Hurricane season officially continues through November 30, so the absence of hurricanes so far does not mean the threat is over.
#HurricaneSeason #AtlanticHurricanes #WeatherHistory #ElNino #instaweather by @tomtheweatherwizard

12

3

a month ago

HOW COLD CAN SEPTEMBER REALLY GET?
September may still feel like summer across much of the country, but history shows that early fall can bring some surprisingly cold temperatures!
Denver has dropped to just 17°F in September, while Rapid City has reached 18°F and Anchorage has fallen to 19°F. Even farther south, Atlanta has recorded 36°F, Dallas 40°F, and Phoenix 47°F.
The Northeast has experienced its share of early-season cold, too. Philadelphia has dropped to 35°F, New York City to 39°F, and Boston to 34°F.
These are the coldest September temperatures on record for the cities shown, not typical September lows or a forecast for this year. Records span different periods of observation, and many were set decades ago.
Source: NOAA/ACIS via AccuWeather. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.
#SeptemberWeather #WeatherHistory #FallWeather #ColdWeather #instaweather by @tomtheweatherwizard

21

3

a month ago

7-DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER 25

The latest Weather Prediction Center forecast shows several areas of the country with a higher potential for meaningful rainfall over the next week.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic stand out with some of the highest forecast totals as deeper Atlantic moisture interacts with passing disturbances and frontal boundaries.

Across the Midwest and Great Lakes, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected as systems move through the region, with locally heavier totals possible.

The Southwest and southern Rockies may also see pockets of heavier rain as tropical and monsoonal moisture is drawn northward.

Farther south, rainfall across the Southeast and Southern Plains looks more variable, with some areas receiving scattered rain while others remain comparatively dry.

This map represents total forecast precipitation over the full 7-day period, not continuous rainfall.

#instaweather #RainForecast #WeatherForecast #Rain #Weather by @tomtheweatherwizard

20

4

a month ago