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NCAA Volleyball Bracketology

@vbracketology

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Volleyball Bracketologist
At-Large Accuracy 404/414 (96.4%)
Top 16 seed Accuracy 194/208 (93.3%)
Top 4 seeds predicted correctly since 2021

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Penn State at USC - Penn State is the borderline for a Top 16 seed to host 1st/2nd rounds at home - while USC is hungry just to make the NCAA Tournament. The Women of Troy picked up a huge road win at Indiana last week, as long as they end up .500 on the season they have a good shot at making the tournament.

Florida at Texas - The Gators regional host bid took a major hit last week as they lost to Vanderbilt. Texas is in jeopardy of not hosting 1st/2nd rounds if they continue to lose matches in the SEC. The Longhorns are a 4-seed in the latest Bracketology at #14 in RPI.

BYU at Utah - The biggest rivalry in Utah has seeding implications. Utah can enter the discussion of hosting 1st/2nd rounds with a win here, while BYU is trying to maximize their seed potential. A 2-seed (5th-8th overall) is a real possibility for BYU if they continue to roll. BYU is 13-1 and has only lost to Pittsburgh on the season and is the only remaining undefeated Big 12 team.

North Carolina at Louisville - North Carolina’s in much better RPI position this year and is trying to enter the conversation of hosting 1st/2nd rounds. A win over Louisville would put them there for now. Louisville has regional host aspirations and this match is a great test for them before they get into the tough matches against Pitt/SMU later in ACC play.

Marquette at St. John’s - The Johnnies are off to a 5-1 start in the Big East, tied for 1st with Creighton and Marquette atop the league. St. John’s already has a win over Xavier, which is crucial since the BEast only takes 4 teams to the conference tournament. Red Storm libero Rashanny Solano Smith is 2nd in the country in digs per set with 5.71.

Pepperdine at Loyola Marymount - Pepperdine is 5-1 in conference, LMU at 6-0. The winner of this match will be in the driver seat for the conference AQ, but both have a shot at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Tulane at Florida Atlantic - Tulane (#57 RPI) is 6-0 in the American Conference and taking their 10-match winning streak to Boca Raton. FAU is coming off back-to-back five set road wins, including against East Carolina who was previously unbeaten in the American.

Appalachian State at James Madison - by @vbracketology

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3 days ago

New Week, New Bracket, New Regional Host, New #1 Overall! Don’t book your tickets yet, but Dallas (SMU) might be a destination in December 😎

Louisville and Florida are still in contention, while Wisconsin would likely need to win out the rest of the season and get some help in order to get a Top-4 seed.

The 4-seed spots (#13-#16 overall) are quite unpredictable at this point. There is a logjam of B1G teams in the 15-25 range that could easily host depending on how the results play out the rest of the season, including the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

This bracket is heavily influenced by future RPI projections - used by calculating win/loss probabilities from Evollve Rankings.

Bracketology’s projection is a measure of what the NCAA committee’s bracket could look like on Selection Sunday - it does not solely consider results to date. by @vbracketology

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4 days ago

Wisconsin at Nebraska - Wisconsin has a tall task, but will enter the conversation to host a regional if they win this match, a loss reduces that to little or no shot. Nebraska certainly can use a Top-10 win - Texas is not a lock to finish Top 10 and while the B1G will have many tournament teams, it is unclear if any besides Wisconsin will finish T10 in RPI.

Florida at Vanderbilt - The Gators have entered the regional hosting conversation with a win over Kentucky. They may be light on top wins - UF does not have a lot of margin for error in terms of a regional. Vanderbilt is on the cusp of hosting 1st/2nd rounds in the NCAA Tournament and a win here would put them in excellent position.

TCU at Arizona State - TCU has taken over as the favorite to win the Big 12, but Arizona State can put that into question with a win this week. Both teams are in good shape to host 1st/2nd rounds, but ASU “needs this more”.

Pittsburgh vs. SMU - This is a home-and-home series this week, one match at Pitt and the other in Dallas. Pitt has some breathing room and should be fine with a split. A split would also keep SMU in the running for hosting a regional.

Xavier at Creighton - This is a big match in the BEast. Six teams are currently tied at 3-1 atop the standings, including Xavier and Creighton. Xavier needs a win to help its tournament resume, and Creighton can’t take too many more losses otherwise they may end up on the bubble.

UMKC at South Dakota - Kansas City is off to a surprising 3-0 start in the Summit League. The ‘Roos have already won more games than they did last year in the Summit League (2-14) 😳😳 South Dakota is a co-favorite with South Dakota State to win the league. This week may determine whether UMKC is a contender or a pretender.

Harvard at Cornell - Harvard took its first loss of the season last week, while Cornell is off to a 3-0 start in League play. The Ivy League tournament only takes four teams, so this is a big match early on in conference play.

Lipscomb at FGCU - Lipscomb has the league’s best RPI currently at 34, while FGCU is the only unbeaten team in the league. Lipscomb may be an at-large contender, but with a loss already in A-Sun play, the by @vbracketology

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9 days ago

Regional Race is heating up!

Bracketology currently sees 7 teams as Regional Host Contenders:
Nebraska, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Florida, SMU, Louisville, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin would have to beat Nebraska to get into any consideration, and Louisville has 3 matches against Pitt/SMU, and would have to win one, very likely two to have a good shot at a regional.

Last week, Bracketology posted a full 32-conference round-up. While some data has changed from a week, a lot of that is useful information if you have not already read it.

For new folks: Bracketology is a projection of what the selection committee’s bracket could look like on Selection Sunday. The success rate typically misses one at-large bid and one top-16 seed.

In order to make future projections, this bracket uses RPI Future rankings to estimate what a team’s Final ranking could be in RPI. The selection committee considers factors such as: Top 10/25/50 wins, KPI, RPI, strength-of-schedule, results against common opponents, head-to-head, regional advisory committee rankings, and more!

The NCAA has bracketing principles for geography - teams who are unseeded are placed within a host site of 400 miles when available and teams who are seeded #5-#8 are paired with #1-#4 teams in order of geography as well, unless it forces conference re-matches. The NCAA committee avoids placing two teams from the same conference for 1st/2nd round matches. by @vbracketology

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11 days ago

October is right around the corner as conference play is underway and things really start to heat up!

All 32 conferences were given a summary/outlook on the substack post - check stories and /or front page for the link.

Bracketology is a projection of what the committee’s final bracket may look like on Selection Sunday, with a proven success rate, averaging about 1 at-large miss per year (last year was Michigan vs. Villanova - committee took Michigan and I took Villanova). This year, I find Michigan on the bubble again early and have them as first four out currently.

This bracket uses the Evollve ranking system as a predictive measure to determine what team’s Final RPI will be. The committee criteria weighs criteria such as: Top 25, Top 50 wins, RPI, KPI, strength-of-schedule, H2H results, common opponents, and more! It does NOT solely consider results to date.

Teams who get seeded #5-#8 or are unseeded teams are placed according to geography (within 400 miles).

PLEASE NOTE: This bracket is projecting that USC will NOT be eligible with a sub-.500 record by season end. They are still under consideration.

EVALUATIVE TOOLS AVAILABLE TO THE COMMITTEE (this is taken directly from the NCAA Pre-Championship Manual)
Among the other tools the committee uses:
● Regional advisory committee rankings.
● Division I record.
● Overall RPI.
● KPI.
● Nonconference record.
● Nonconference RPI.
● Conference record.
● Conference RPI.
● Road record.
● Record in last 10 matches.
● Record against teams ranked 1-50 by RPI.
● Record against teams ranked 51-100 by RPI.
● Record against teams ranked 101-200 by RPI.
● Record against teams ranked below 200 by RPI.
● Record against other teams under consideration.
● Head-to-head.
● Significant wins and losses.
● Results against common opponents.
● Results against teams already receiving at-large bids.
● Site of match.
● Other circumstances that could affect results (e.g., injuries). by @vbracketology

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18 days ago

Wisconsin at Purdue - Wisconsin played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and took some bruises along the way. Purdue has impressed, sweeping its last five matches, including a win over SMU after losing one of the top players in the country to start the season.

Texas at Kentucky - This match has regional host implications. Kentucky has a loss to SMU but has signature wins over Louisville, Wisconsin, and Penn State.

Baylor at BYU - Both teams have aspirations of hosting 1st/2nd rounds. Baylor has wins over Georgia Tech, San Diego, Hawaii, and UTEP. BYU has wins over UCLA and Florida State.

Stanford at SMU - SMU is in the race to host a regional with wins over Kentucky and Texas, but hurt itself with losses to TCU and Purdue. Stanford may be in trouble to even host 1st/2nd rounds with losses to PSU, Arizona State, and Texas A&M already, but does have a win over Wisconsin.

Villanova at Xavier - Xavier received an at-large bid last year to the NCAAs, while Villanova was first out. These teams meet only once in the regular season and this match has major implications on Big East Tournament race and at-large consideration.

Western Michigan at Ball State - The MAC as a conference won a lot in the non-conference and has teams in the race for an at-large bid. Ball State in is in good position with wins over Xavier, Western Kentucky, and Dayton.

South Florida at Tulsa - Tulsa lost two tough matches to Miami-FL and LSU last week but has wins over Creighton, Pepperdine, and UTEP and is a contender for an at-large bid. Do not be deceived by the Bulls 1-9 record - USF is potent and has been competitive with everyone in their very tough non-conference.

UTEP at Wyoming - UTEP makes its Mountain West Conference debut in Laramie, historically not an easy place to play. UTEP has made back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances.

Pepperdine at Santa Clara - Pepperdine is fresh off a sweep of USC and also has a win over Villanova. Santa Clara played a tough non-conference with some rough losses but does have wins over Cal Poly and Cincinnati.

Northern Iowa at Drake - This has been a premier MVC match in recent history. UNI notched a win against Rice in by @vbracketology

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24 days ago

RPI Futures estimates a team’s final regular season record using the Evollve rankings to predict their total wins and losses through the season. These include matches played through September 17th. RPI Futures calculation is performed based on the season ending W/L records projected by the Evollve rankings. by @vbracketology

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a month ago

Week 2 of Bracketology! This is a projection of what the final committee’s bracket could look - this does not solely consider results to date. There is a ton of movement that can still happen, but, we have a very good idea of conference potential after this week because 99% of non-conference matches are finished after this week.

Evollve rankings are used to estimate win-loss records and future RPI calculations for the purpose of filling out this bracket. by @vbracketology

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a month ago

RPI Futures estimates a team’s final regular season record using the Evollve rankings to predict their total wins and losses through the season. These include matches played through September 9th. RPI Futures calculation is performed based on the season ending W/L records projected by the Evollve rankings.

These rankings are estimates and depend on how well opponents perform and are variable at this point of the season. However, this is the most useful ranking, especially at this time, in terms of determining a team’s Final RPI. by @vbracketology

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a month ago

Bracketology is back! This is a projection of what the 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket could look like as it is revealed on Selection Sunday. #NCAA #Volleyball #VB #NCAAVB #CollegeVolleyball by @vbracketology

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a month ago

RPI Futures is a calculation that estimates what a team’s final RPI will be based on a team’s projected season-end win-loss record.

At this point in the season, “live” RPI rankings are not useful until around October, which is why the NCAA doesn’t post them yet. This ranking is useful and reflective of what season end may look like. It is crucial to be a Top 50 team in order to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, and a Top 20 team to receive 1st/2nd round hosting privileges.

Evolve rankings as the primary influencer to make win/loss predictions for future matches to estimate what a team’s final record may be. This calculation includes RPI adjustments for bonuses/penalties, but it does NOT account for conference tournaments.

This projection and ranking is created by an individual who has been calculating “RPI Futures” for 10+ years, the data gets “more accurate” as the season goes on with less “future matches”. I am not the creator but can answer questions about how they are calculated and what the implications are. by @vbracketology

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a month ago

Day 1 begins for (most of) D-1 with exciting non-conference matchups. Bracketology has eyes on these 5 in particular.

Creighton vs. Purdue - Creighton has a brutal non-conference schedule that starts off right away with a major test. Purdue will be without Kenna Wollard who is out indefinitely.

Marquette vs. Dayton - Dayton is hungry to get back to the NCAA Tournament after they were upset by VCU last year in the A-10 Final. Marquette, with a mostly new cast, is coming off a 5-set loss to Texas.

Oregon vs. Western Kentucky - Oregon barely missed out on the tournament last year, while WKU is a perennial top mid-major. Alanah Clemente is a premier opposite and WKU sports their own physical left-handed opposite in Kaira Knox.

Arizona State vs. Minnesota - Arizona State had a statement win over Texas in their quest to host a regional as a top-4 team this year. Minnesota had a rough exhibition against Iowa State.

Baylor vs. San Diego - Baylor and San Diego are expected to be make the tournament and both could have a shot at getting a Top 16 seed and hosting 1st/2nd round matches. by @vbracketology

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2 months ago