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VORTEX | Pro Surf Analytics

@vortexheatcast

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Competitive intelligence desk.
Cited by STAB, Inertia, LAGO
Independent. No affiliation.

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“A cheat sheet against your opponents.”

Appreciate the breakdown from @thelagopodcast ⚡️⚡️

A quick note on how VORTEX works:
What you see at vortexheatcast.com is our public reduced layer. It’s engaging, but beneath the public layer sits the real engine, housing the deep, granular, tactical intelligence built for active operators.

#sportstech #sportsanslytics #surfing #competitiveintelligence #lagopodcast taken in Peniche SuperTubos by @vortexheatcast

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3 days ago

by @vortexheatcast

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2 months ago

Huge thanks to @evanquarnstrom @theinertia

Evan did a fantastic job, asked great questions, and distilled a story out of it that we are very proud of. ⚡️⚡️

https://www.theinertia.com/features/surf-stats-start-up-revolutionize-coach-watch-bet/

#surfstats #sportstech #surfanalytics #surf #surfing by @vortexheatcast

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a month ago

Thank you @duke_surf this is a great moment for us, we appreciate the research, write up, and multilingual translation

#surf #surfer #surfing #surfstats sportstech by @vortexheatcast

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a month ago

YOLANDA ANOMALY // MEDIA CITATION
Portuguese surf outlet @surftotalpt built a story around a VORTEX HeatCast finding: @yo_surf ranks fifth overall among the platform’s most-viewed athlete profiles - and first among women - since launch in mid August 2026.

Follow for CT statistics and updates.

Explore the data: vortexheatcast.com

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ANOMALIA YOLANDA // CITAÇÃO NOS MEDIA
A publicação portuguesa de surf @surftotalpt construiu a sua mais recente história em torno de uma descoberta do VORTEX HeatCast: @yo_surf ocupa o 5.º lugar entre os perfis de atletas mais vistos na plataforma—e o 1.º lugar entre as mulheres—desde o lançamento, em meados de agosto de 2026.

Segue-nos para estatísticas e atualizações do CT.

Explora os dados: vortexheatcast.com

#surf #surfer #surfing

Source: https://surftotal.com/noticias/nacionais/item/27507-anomalia-yolanda-portuguesa-e-a-mulher-mais-procurada-e-supera-estrelas-mundiais-do-surf taken in Portugal by @vortexheatcast

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a month ago

Muchísimas gracias a @vas_cogg fundador de Surf Place Peru @surfplaceperu , por esta entrevista.

La calidad de una nota se define por las preguntas formuladas, y las de Vasco fueron excepcionales. Nos dio el espacio perfecto para profundizar en exactamente qué estamos construyendo en VORTEX y, lo más importante, por qué lo estamos haciendo.

Estamos increíblemente agradecidos por el tiempo y la gran conversación. Muy apreciado. (traducido)

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Português:
Um enorme agradecimento a Vasco Gonzalez Gambetta, fundador do @surfplaceperu, por esta entrevista.

A qualidade de uma conversa é definida pelas perguntas feitas, e as do Vasco foram excepcionais. Ele nos deu o espaço perfeito para aprofundar exatamente no que estamos construindo na VORTEX e, mais importante, por que estamos fazendo isso.

Somos incrivelmente gratos pelo tempo e pela excelente conversa. Muito obrigado. (traduzido)

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A massive thank you to @vas_cogg founder of @surfplaceperu, for this feature.

The quality of an interview is defined by the questions asked, and Vasco’s were exceptional. He provided the perfect space for us to dive deep into exactly what we are building at VORTEX and, more importantly, why we are doing it.

We are incredibly thankful for the time and the thoughtful conversation. Much appreciated.

#surf #surfer #surfing #sportstech #surfanalytics taken in Lima, Perú by @vortexheatcast

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a month ago

When the VORTEX model projection backed Liam O’Brien over Filipe Toledo at Lower Trestles, our DMs blew up:

“Is your system broken?"
"Filipe is the KING of Lowers!”

One message insisted Liam had "less than a 1% chance".

Then Liam posted a 15.10 to hand the two-time World Champion an early exit.

Now, in the very next event, they draw each other in Round 1 at Supertubos.

This time, our public model is calling for revenge: Toledo enters with a 74% win probability, (meaning in 100 mock matchups, Filipe is projected to win 74/100 times and Liam 26/100) and our strength-of-schedule pathway model projects him to run the table and win the entire event.

Regardless of the model projections, here is the data behind the rematch, drawn from nine events this season:

The Baseline Firepower:
Toledo’s season heat average sits at 14.40 versus Liam’s 12.20.

At Lowers, Filipe didn’t fold. His 14.43 was right on his season average. Liam simply produced an outlier heat, spiking 2.90 points above his mean with a 15.10.

The Toledo Paradox:
Filipe has reached the 14.00+ threshold in 12 of 15 heats (80%), yet has suffered high-scoring losses. Even in defeat, his average heat total is 13.14.

Liam’s Precision Floor:
O’Brien counters with surgical consistency, completing 301 of 322 major maneuvers (93.5%), including a perfect 30/30 on carves.

The Supertubos Factor:
If Peniche barrels, Liam brings the stronger 2026 season book tube-completion record: 14 of 21 attempts (67%) against Toledo’s 3 of 9 (33%).

But if the heat moves above the lip, Toledo holds a clear edge: 12 completed airs on 22 attempts (55%), while Liam is 0 for 2.

Our Portugal mens bracket projection runs entirely through Toledo. His road to the event win begins with the man who stopped him last time.

#sportstech #sportsanalytics #surfing #supertubos #portugal taken in Peniche SuperTubos by @vortexheatcast

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3 days ago

Molly Picklum has beaten Yolanda Hopkins twice this season: 15.67–11.50 on the Gold Coast and 13.33–9.50 at Trestles.

Heading into their third meeting this year at Supertubos, the VORTEX model gives Molly a 64.5% win probability.

The reigning World Champion has the scoring record to match. Molly has reached 14.00+ in seven of her 20 heats. Yolanda has yet to reach that mark in 18.

But the VORTEX analyst desk took a closer look. There’s more in Yolanda’s favor than that headline suggests.

The Baseline Reliability
Start with the turns. Yolanda has completed 173 of 184 attempts: 94%. Molly has completed 161 of 173: 93%. Their turn completion is nearly identical. Yolanda brings a very reliable rail game into this matchup.

The Supertubos X-Factor
Then look at the tubes. Yolanda has completed 12 from 29 attempts. Molly has completed three from six. That’s four times the recorded tube completions for the Portuguese surfer. Molly converts a higher share of her attempts, but Yolanda brings considerably more competitive barrel work into meeting three.

If Supertubos delivers tubes, that part of the matchup gets interesting. And Yolanda’s rail work give her a case beyond the barrel.

Molly has both wins, the scoring edge, and the model’s backing. Yolanda has the tools to make this a contest, with a highly passionate Portuguese crowd behind her.

Can she make the third meeting hers?

2026 VORTEX data through Trestles.

#sportstech #sportsanalytics #surfing #yolandahopkins #portugal taken in Peniche SuperTubos by @vortexheatcast

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5 days ago

Three Questions That Could Shape Portugal

Erin Brooks is chasing a fourth consecutive victory (Teahupoʻo → Cloudbreak → Trestles).

Her first obstacle at Supertubos: 2X World Champion Tyler Wright.

VORTEX’s 2026 nine-event record puts three questions in focus:

1. Can the Streak Survive Tyler Wright?

Brooks and Wright haven’t met in 2026. Both have attempted exactly 198 major maneuvers this season:

• Wright completed 185 (93.4%).
• Brooks completed 172 (86.9%).

But the scoring record flips:

• 14.00+ Heats: Brooks has six in 22 heats; Wright has zero in 16.
• Tube Completions: Brooks brings 18 (from 24 attempts) vs. Wright’s 2 (from 3).

2. What Happens After the Barrel?
A tube exit often leads straight into a finishing oncoming section. The ride still has another question to answer.

At Trestles, we tracked rides with at least two completed major maneuvers before the final attempt:

• Final maneuver completed: 5.83 median score.
• Final maneuver incomplete: 3.58 median score.

That 2.25-point gap is an observed association, not a fixed deduction, but it gives a reason to watch beyond the exit.

3. Will the League Run Overlapping Heats?
The 2026 rulebook allows it, including in the postseason. In our nine-event sample:

• Standard heats: 23.0% contained an 8.00+ ride.
• Overlapping heats: Only 9.2% contained an 8.00+ ride.

Different venues and conditions mean format alone doesn’t explain the gap. But if overlap is called at Supertubos, we’ll be tracking whether that pattern follows.

#sportstech #sportsanalytics #surfing #supertubos #portugal taken in Peniche SuperTubos by @vortexheatcast

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6 days ago

VORTEX // 2026 REGULAR SEASON HONORS
Leonardo Fioravanti led the men with 354 completed turns. Carissa Moore led the women with 327 - one ahead of Sawyer Lindblad’s 326. Honorable mention to @sawyerlindblad

Italo Ferreira led the men with 29 completed tubes, one ahead of Seth Moniz at 28. Honorable mention to @sethmoniz

Erin Brooks led the women with 18 completed tubes. Honorable mention to Yolanda Hopkins. @yo_surf led the women’s Tour in tube attempts - a relentless hunt for the barrel.

Italo also led the men with 42 completed airs. Carissa Moore and Sally Fitzgibbons share the women’s lead with one each. Sally led the women’s Tour with 10 air attempts, pushing for aerial progression more often than anyone else in the field.

Wild cards have their own honors; injury replacements are identified separately.

2026 Regular Season: 9 events. 521 heats. 6,407 waves. 100,000+ human-recorded performance data points.

Explore the public record: VortexHeatcast.com
Competitive intelligence: @vortex.intelligence

Presented by @isurfmex

#SportsTech #SportsAnalytics #Surfing #Surfer #Surf by @vortexheatcast

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20 days ago

VORTEX // TRESTLES VENUE INTELLIGENCE
Read the 2026 Trestles Venue Intelligence Dossier at the link in our bio.

#VORTEX #surf #LowerTrestles #SportsAnalytics #OlympicSurfing by @vortexheatcast

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24 days ago

VORTEX Supertubos 2026 Bracket Model Projections 🇵🇹

This one is for the fantasy crowd: a JUST FOR FUN bracket projection using VORTEX’s observed 2026 season data and proprietary transfer weighting.

Calling every heat correctly across both divisions is a long shot. One early upset can wipe out an entire projected route - and the ocean doesn’t follow a spreadsheet.

Where we have observed data, the model makes the picks. For the four wildcard matchups, we currently lack verified tracking coverage, so we advanced the regular CT surfers by human editorial assumption. Those selections reflect a data gap, not a verdict on the wildcards’ abilities. Also note that 9/27 (33%) of 2026 wildcards have won an opening heat on the main stage this season.

The remaining picks follow the model through the matchups our projected winners create. Our men’s path ends with Filipe Toledo against Cole Houshmand, with Toledo narrowly favored at 52.9% in that specific final.

Our women’s path takes Caitlin Simmers through a projected semifinal against Luana Silva to meet Gabriela Bryan, with Simmers holding a 54.9% estimate in that final.

Those percentages apply only to the displayed matchups. They are not either surfer’s overall probability of winning Portugal.

The model draws on recorded performance in transferable conditions. It cannot know exactly what waves, opportunities or performances the event will deliver. This is one conditional path, with four editorial assumptions disclosed - not betting advice or a promise of a perfect draw.

Swipe through the men’s and women’s projected brackets and our provisional fantasy team picks. Now let’s see what Portugal writes. 🍿🍿🍿

#sportstech #sportsanalytics #surfing #fantasysurfing #portugal taken in Peniche SuperTubos by @vortexheatcast

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5 days ago