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Barça will beat Madrid next Sunday. Here’s why 👇

⚔️ Attack: 67 goals + assists from 61.8 xG+xA. The most in La Liga. Madrid: 38 from 41.1.
🎯 Control: 697 passes a match vs Madrid’s 529, at the same accuracy (90.7% vs 90.0%). Pedri and Rodri set the tempo.
🔥 Form: 6 Barça players in the elite quadrant. Madrid have 4. Raphinha leads La Liga with 2.3 G+A per 90.
🟥 And Vinícius misses the Clásico: a 4-game ban for pulling Saliba’s hair.
⭐ Lamine Yamal: 1.7 G+A per 90.

Attack. Control. Form. All Barça.

Agree or disagree? 👀 by @xfandata

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3 hours ago

GW7: we called it. Twice. ✅✅

✅ CAPTAIN HAALAND
Home to Ipswich, the 2nd-worst defence in the league. 2 goals, 3 bonus, 13 points. 26 if you gave him the armband. City win 3-2.

✅ SELL BRUNO
1 point at Leeds. 90 minutes, no goal, no assist, a yellow card. 33 points all season, 23 of them in one game. If you sold him, you kept your £11.8m working elsewhere.

Every week we pick a Captain, Buy, Sell and Differential, all backed by data. GW8 picks drop soon, so follow so you don’t miss them.

How many points did your captain get this week?

#fpl #premierleauge #haaland #manchestercity #manchesterunitedfc by @xfandata

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11 hours ago

Quiz Time: Which goal had a lower xG? 🤔⚽️
#manchesterunited #manchestercity by @xfandata

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a day ago

Why was Ronaldo benched by Jorge Mendes?

#cr7 #ronaldo #realmadrid #messi #ronaldofans by @xfandata

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2 days ago

Every penalty is worth the same 0.78 xG. They don’t all go in the same way. ⚽

We plotted 986 penalties, every one seen from the taker’s spot:
🔵 732 goals (74.2%)
🟧 183 saved
✖️ 71 missed or hit the post

In shootouts, conversion drops to 69.0% (76.2% in normal play).

Only 8 of the 183 saves came in the top half of the goal. The top corners: 100 penalties, 99 goals, 0 saved.

The catch? Of the 107 that finished in the top 60 cm of the goal or higher, 39 missed. 38 went over the bar. Just ask Harry Kane.

Top corner or keep it low? 👇

#football #penalties #Saka #Euro2020 #England by @xfandata

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3 days ago

Home game against the 2nd-worst defence in the league. City are top with 6 wins from 6. Haaland has scored in each of his last 5 games. No brainer captain. Even if he doesn’t return, zero regrets here, because the numbers couldn’t be better.

40% of all managers captained him away at Liverpool. At home to Ipswich, that number is only going up. If he hauls and you’re not on board, you don’t want to be the one who missed it.

#fpl #haaland #manchestercity #mcfc #premierleauge by @xfandata

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3 days ago

“Don’t shoot!” 🗣️

That’s what Liverpool’s Director of Research, Ian Graham, was shouting as Coutinho lined one up at Fulham in 2014. He shot anyway. Goal.

So was his trademark shot genius, or a bad habit? We ran the numbers 👇

📊 213 long shots in the PL (2014/15–2017/18, free kicks excluded)
⚽ 11 goals, a 5.2% conversion rate
🔥 The rest of the league: 3.1%. That’s 1 in 19 against 1 in 32. Elite.
📦 But inside the box he scored 12.5%, and the league 14%. Even his best shot went in less than half as often as a normal chance in the box.
🔄 2.2 attacks ended per 90, the most in the league

Without the long shots, no Southampton screamer. But 19 of every 20 came to nothing.

A brilliant shooter, with an expensive habit.

Genius or bad habit? Comment A or B 👇

Data: Understat · Ian Graham, How to Win the Premier League

#Coutinho #LFC #Liverpool #PremierLeague #FootballData by @xfandata

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4 days ago

GW7 sell: Bruno Fernandes 🚨

23 of his 32 points came in one game, the 5-2 against Ipswich in GW2. In the other 5 games he’s scored 9 points combined, and just 7 in his last 4.

The underlying numbers don’t save him either. Outside GW2: 0 goals, 0 assists from 1.54 xG + xA in 5 games.

And it’s not just him. United have taken the most shots in the league (124) but the worst ones: 0.088 xG per shot, 20th of 20. 56 from outside the box, 47 blocked, 7 goals.

6 points from 6 games is United’s worst league start since 1986/87. The sack talk around Carrick has already started, and a team in this state doesn’t give you consistent returns. Even if Bruno hauls one week, you can’t rely on him the next.

That’s £11.9m sitting in one player. Invest it elsewhere, there are plenty of good options:
✅ Groß (£6.0m): 53 pts, 37 in his last 3, +£5.9m in the bank
✅ Schade (£6.2m): 40 pts, 25 in his last 3, +£5.7m in the bank
✅ Cherki (£7.8m): 44 pts, home to Ipswich next, +£4.1m in the bank
✅ Rogers (£7.9m): 38 pts, 4 goals already, +£4.0m in the bank

Every one of them has outscored Bruno this season.

Are you keeping Bruno this week? Comment A for yes, B for no

#FPL #FantasyPremierLeague #FPLCommunity #PremierLeague #xFAN by @xfandata

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5 days ago

Moments of magic ✨

This is Lamine Yamal a split second before he skipped into the box and teed up Anthony Gordon for Barcelona’s 53rd-minute goal, three minutes after setting up Fermín López.

His night in Istanbul:
🎯 6 key passes
🅰️ 2 assists
💥 3 big chances created
📈 1.3 xA

#lamineyamal #fcbarcelona by @xfandata

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5 days ago

0–0 for 63 minutes. Then Arsenal flipped a switch. ⚡

64’ Timber
67’ Eze
71’ Saka

3 goals in 7 minutes to beat Lille 3–0, and Lille didn’t manage a single shot on target all night. by @xfandata

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6 days ago

Gameweek 6: ownership vs returns 📊

Henderson scored 18 points. Only 0.04% of managers owned him, about 4,400 out of 11 million. 8 of the week’s 11 top scorers were owned by less than 10% of managers.

The 10 most-owned players averaged 7.5 points, and 9 of them returned. Bruno didn’t: 1 point at 37% owned.

Our picks: Mbeumo (C) scored, 8 × 2 = 16. Groß delivered 6. Barnes blanked with 2.

Bruno has 23 points from GW2 and only 7 from the four gameweeks since. 227K managers have already sold him. Is it time? Sell or hold? 👇

Want to check any player yourself? Comment “FPL” and we’ll DM you the link.

Data: Fantasy Premier League
#fpl #premierleauge by @xfandata

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6 days ago

2–1 down at Fulham in February 2014, Philippe Coutinho picks up the ball outside the box and shapes to shoot. Watching on, Liverpool’s Director of Research Ian Graham is shouting “don’t shoot!” Coutinho has other ideas. He shoots, he scores, and Gerrard wins it with a last-minute penalty. In his book How to Win the Premier League, Graham admits he was still worried about the habit.

By Graham’s count, Coutinho scored 14 PL goals from outside the box at Liverpool, and only Kane, Yaya Touré and Agüero also reached double figures. But it took him 268 attempts. A third missed the target, more than a third were blocked, and 66 of the 80 on target were saved. Were all those wasted chances worth the occasional worldie?

The data says he really was special from range. Free kicks aside, he scored 11 from 213 long shots between 2014/15 and 2017/18, a 5.2% conversion rate. The rest of the league managed 3.1%, so he finished at 1.7x the league rate: 1 in 19 from distance, against 1 in 32 for everyone else. Elite.

But the box always wins, for everyone, Coutinho included. His conversion jumps from 5.2% outside the box to 12.5% inside it. The league’s jumps from 3.1% to 14.0%. Even his trademark shot went in less than half as often as an ordinary chance in the box.

And a long shot that doesn’t go in usually ends the attack and hands the ball back. Coutinho did that 2.2 times per 90, more than any other attacker or midfielder and 3.3x the average. Over 38 full games, that’s about 84 attacks. 68 went wide or over, 51 were saved and 83 were blocked.

Still, without those long shots we’d never have seen goals like this one: Coutinho opens his body on the edge of the box with a defender sliding in, and curls it into the top corner before the keeper can move. No long shots, no stunners. Every miss was the price of a moment like that.

Coutinho’s long shots: genius or bad habit?
A) Genius
B) Bad habit
Comment A or B 👇 by @xfandata

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7 days ago