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Phil Rosen

@philrosenn

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💰Making sense of finance, investing & markets
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🎙️Host of Full Signal
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What does history say about stock performance in Q4 of a midterm year? 🤔

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Capital rotation is the part most investors ignore.⁣
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Bitcoin was down hard on the year while AI stocks ran. Then AI cooled off and Bitcoin jumped from 65K to 85K almost overnight. That is not a coincidence. That is profits rotating out of one trade and into another.⁣
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Here is the part that matters longer term. AI agents need digital money to transact. That expands the addressable market for Bitcoin and stablecoins without adding any new supply. Bitcoin is one of the few assets where demand can rise while supply stays fixed. When that happens, price is the only variable left to adjust.⁣
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Watch where capital flows after a trade gets crowded. That rotation is often more predictable than the original trade itself.⁣
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Follow @pompglobal for more like this.

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Bitcoin drawdowns used to hit 85%. Now they're "only" 40 to 50%.⁣
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That's not a small detail. It means volatility is compressing as the asset matures, even though it still moves far more than gold or productive land.⁣
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The smart allocation isn't picking one. It's blending them. Gold and land are stable but slow. Bitcoin is volatile but asymmetric. Mixed together, you get noncorrelation that smooths the ride over a decade instead of a quarter.⁣
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Bitcoin is gold with wings. It carries the same scarcity thesis but moves faster as technology and adoption compound. The gold bugs hate that comparison. The math doesn't care.⁣
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Follow @pompglobal for more like this.

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Pomp's definition of success has nothing to do with net worth.⁣
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Excited to go to work. Excited to go home. That's it.⁣
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Most people only get one. They either dread the job and love the family, or love the job and dread walking back into the chaos at home.⁣
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Very few people get both. That is the actual benchmark worth building toward, more than any number in a brokerage account.⁣
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You can be rich on paper and still fail this test every single day.⁣
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Follow @pompglobal for more like this.

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Banks close at 2pm. Markets shut at 4pm. AI agents don't know what time it is.⁣
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Companies are already running more AI agents than human employees. Those agents transact, and they need money that moves 24/7. Wires and market hours were built for humans, not machines that work around the clock.⁣
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That's why Bitcoin and stablecoins matter here. They settle anytime, no window closes. And with Bitcoin specifically, supply is fixed no matter how much new demand shows up. More agents transacting means more demand hitting a supply that can't expand. Basic economics says price absorbs that pressure.⁣
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The takeaway: as AI agents become economic actors, the assets built for always-on settlement get a structural tailwind that banking-hours finance can't match.⁣
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Follow @pompglobal for more like this.

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Amateurs built Noah's Ark. Professionals built the Titanic.⁣
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Expertise is only an edge when the problem has already been solved. Surgery, flying a plane, filing your taxes. You want the person who has done it a thousand times.⁣
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But reusable rockets had never been done. Every rocket expert said it was impossible, because it had never worked before. It took outsiders with no legacy in the industry to ignore that consensus and build it anyway.⁣
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The same thing plays out in investing. The best contrarian trades usually come from people without deep ties to the old playbook. Experts optimize inside the system that exists. Builders question whether that system should exist at all.⁣
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Next time you're stuck on a problem nobody has solved, ask who in the room has the least experience in it. That might be your best idea.⁣
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Follow @pompglobal for more like this.

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One year married 🤍🥂 Time flies when you’re busy loving life with your person ✨ Feeling extra nostalgic looking back at our unforgettable time in Greece with so many spontaneous moments and time spent with family and friends.

One year down, forever to go!✨

@zetaefstratioy_mua @ignatioskourouvasilis @ellisplan_weddings_events @eptastadio

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Loved celebrating cousin @klaus.schultz26 and his beautiful bride @drea.schultz 🥂 Wishing you both a lifetime of love and adventure!
Anniversary buddies! 9/26

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On September 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. First hike since 2023. Kevin Warsh's first policy move as Fed chair, passed unanimously, with inflation at 3.4% in August and oil prices climbing on the war with Iran.

My timeline decided this was the end of the bull market about four minutes after the announcement...

But look at the record instead: six tightening cycles since 1994. Stocks were higher twelve months after the first hike in five of them. The only miss was 2022, when the Fed went from zero to 4.5% in nine months.

Credit to Phil Rosen (@philrosenn) for the chart.

The first few months after a hike are usually ugly, but the following 12 months is usually not.
#FedRateHike #InterestRates #StockMarket #Investing

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And the sun goes down on another incredible week at the beach. My fifth @futureproof_hq in the books was calmer than past years, but that just meant I had more time to connect with great friends old and new. Very thankful to be welcomed in by such supportive people with so much to offer the financial services industry.

The future is bright, people!

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Grateful. Humble. Fired up. All at once.

What you see today is the part that made it to the light. The part that didn’t quit or give up. What you can’t see are my life’s battle scars. The dark lonely hours, wondering if any of it would ever add up. Those hours weren’t wasted, they were grounding.

If you’re in your lonely chapter right now, don’t waste the quiet. Take the pain, the lessons, and the time, and beat on your craft until it answers back. Nobody’s watching yet, and that’s the gift.

I don’t take this moment for granted.

You don’t have to wait for change to find you. You can choose it.

Be Salt & Light, not perfect. 📈♟️

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Take profits on small‑caps? Phil Rosen explains why he’s rotating out — and the healthcare name he’s loading up on instead.

#investing #stocks #stockmarket

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